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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-10 Version:36

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem310
 
Rep228
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem253
 
Rep181
 
Ind0
 
Tos104
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-4-1-49252310-49
Rep+4+1+49000222179+49
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Obama-D is polling above 50 percent or in a double digit lead in.
DC-3
HI-4(7)
VT-3(10)
NY-29(39)
RI-4(43)
MD-10(53)
DE-3(56)
MA-11(67)
IL-20(87)
CA-55(142)
ME-4(146)
WA-12(158)
CT-7(165)
MN-10(175)
NM-5(180)
NJ-14(194)
Obama-D leading in the high single digit margin.
OR-7(201)
PA-20(221)
MI-16(237)
NV-6(243)
OH-18(261)
WI-10(271)
Obama-D narrowly wins or will end up winning.
FL-29(300)
NH-4(304)
VA-13(317)
IA-6(323)
CO-9(332)




Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-10 @ 12:32:42 prediction Map
Paul Ryan is likely to be Romney's VP running mate.
The Romney/Ryan-R ticket will carry all of the Dole/McCain States(AZ,AR,CO,IN,KY,LA,MO,NC,TN,VA,and WV)=228ev
Obama/Biden-D ticket will carry all of the Gore/Kerry States(IA,NH,and NM)=257ev plus NV,OH,and FL states Bush Sr,Clinton,Bush Jr.and Obama carried.
Obama-D recieves 310ev.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-10 @ 15:35:55 prediction Map
If that is the ticket i would add Virginia to Obama's total...

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-10 @ 16:30:35 prediction Map
Looking at the Dole-1996 States Obama-D carried in 2008(CO,IN,NC,and VA).
IN is the only Dole/Obama state- Romney-R is likely to carry.
VA is likely to remain in the Obama-D collumn.
CO is tossup/slight Obama-D advantage.
NC is tossup/slight Romney-R advantage.
Looking at the deep south.
VA and FL are the southern states Obama-D is likely to carry.
42+179(States Kerry won in 2004 by a margin greater than 5 percent)=221ev.
Looking at the Southwest-Obama-D wins NM and NV= 232ev.
OR and MN =249
PA and NH= 273ev.
Obama-D guide to victory is solidifying the NorthEast(NH-4 and PA-20)=112ev.
and the Pacific West Coast(HI-4,CA-55,WA-12,and OR-7)=78ev(190ev)
Midwest-Obama-D wins (IL-20 and MN-10)=30ev(220ev)
Southwest-Obama-D wins (NM-5 and NV-6)=11ev(231ev)
Southeast-Obama-D wins (VA-13 and FL-29)=42ev(273ev)
Midwestern states such as OH,MI,WI,and IA are battleground states that Obama-D is more likely to win-assuming he does not win the Southeastern states.
CO and NC are basically a tie.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-10 @ 23:55:49 prediction Map
Tommorrow Morning at 9am- we will find out who Romney-R will pick as his Smithers.
Is it Portman,Pawlenty,or Ryan.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-11 @ 05:01:25 prediction Map
Since Ryan is going to be Romney's VP runningmate.
FL-29 is likely to go to the Obama collumn- due to its strong senior electorate- which is unhappy with Romney/Ryan policies along with their Republican Governor- Scott.
All of the states that Obama-D is expected to win by a double digit margin including (NM-5,MN-10,and OR-7) add up to 201ev plus FL-29=230ev.
Obama-D is going to win PA-20,MI-16,and NV-6 by a high single digit margin=272ev.
Obama-D also wins OH-18 and WI-10=300ev.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 97 16 42T
P 2014 Governor 28/36 16/36 44/72 61.1% pie 1 325 171T
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 145/161 105/161 250/322 77.6% pie



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