Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-10 Version:18

Prediction Map
darthpi Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
darthpi Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	326
Rep	212
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	275
Rep	191
Ind	0
Tos	72

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-1	-33	26	2	326	-33
Rep	+3	+1	+33	0	0	0	22	2	179	+33
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

President Obama continues to improve his chances for re-election, as Pennsylvania moves into the solid column and Ohio enters lean territory. Virginia is right on the boundary between lean and tossup right now, and with more consistently good polling performance the President will move that state into the lean column as well.

Mitt Romney is maintaining his leads in the core group of states that he needs to hold to even have a chance, but the fact that he is in a dead heat in a normally red state like North Carolina and is trailing somewhat consistently in Florida does not bode well for the former governor.

As for Romney's running mate, right now it looks as though Paul Ryan very well might be the favorite. Quite frankly, I think this would be a terrible decision for Romney to make, as I doubt Wisconsin could be put in play, and Paul Ryan's presence on the ticket seems likely to do more harm than good, particularly with the 45-60 year old demographic, given what his budget proposal would mean for Medicare. It would force the issue of health care back into the spotlight as well, which is hardly an issue that Mitt Romney wants to be discussing.

If I were Mitt Romney, I would pick Marco Rubio as a running mate. His background is a plus, and he would help put an absolute must-win state for the governor back into a more viable position, whereas now Florida is slowly trending toward Lean Obama status. It would also provide an upbeat note going into the convention, something that Romney could certainly use right about now.

Nationwide Popular Vote

Obama (D): 50.8%
Romney (R): 47.7%
3rd Party: 1.5%

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: darthpi (D-PA) 2012-08-11 @ 00:55:57
Breaking: Ryan is VP pick I can't believe Romney is actually going with Ryan as his VP pick. Such a terrible strategic move.

By: CR (--MO) 2012-08-11 @ 10:41:22
I don't think its that bad. In fact I don't know if it does much at all. I agree that he should have picked Rubio, that was really my top choice along with McDonnell and Jindal. At least its not Tim Pawlenty. And hey we have the same map now!

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-11 @ 15:58:23
I agree with CR, Ryan may be what Obama wanted but I still think it is a net plus for the ticket ...I mean it certifies that ROmney is in this for change and economic stimulation and fiscal responsibility. That is my key issue but not my only one.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-11 @ 16:00:00
I want to emphasize that I am a moderate Democrat who has never voted GOP in my election history since voting against GOP in 1964....although I came to appreciate AU H2O big time.

By: darthpi (D-PA) 2012-08-11 @ 16:37:24
Maybe I'm missing something, but how does a budget that increases unemployment by approximately 4 million Americans by 2014 qualify as "economic stimulation"? http://www.epi.org/blog/paul-ryan-budget-discretionary-cuts-cost-jobs/ How does a tax policy that "isn’t mathematically possible" according to a tax analysis group that Romney himself once called "objective" qualify as fiscally responsible? http://factcheck.org/2012/08/romneys-impossible-tax-promise/ I realize that there need to be reforms to our tax policy and spending policies, but could you really vote for a guy who wouldn't accept a 10:1 spending cuts to revenue increases deal? http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_08/tentoone_isnt_good_enough_for031484.php I agree that Romney-Ryan now represents fundamental changes to the structure and purpose of government, but I fail to see how those changes would be for the better.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-12 @ 09:46:08
Well, I think different analysis produce different results. That they are willing to tackle the budget which is bloated represents something new or not at least since Clinton. The budget needs drastic cuts to be aligned with income and then we need to increase taxes to reduce the debt. I may not agree with Ryan on some details but he is not an iconoclastic budgeter and would work with the other side.

By: CR (--MO) 2012-08-12 @ 13:33:28
The idea here is symbolism. That's almost as important in a campaign as the actual issues themselves. Ryan's selection makes the GOP ticket under Romney totally centered on the economy and the nation's fiscal ills. Whether you agree with the tactics or not they are going to address the debt, budget, spending, taxes, healthcare costs, energy, and general size of government under this central theme. Really there is no one better that Romney could have picked to nail this home. Plus it shows his commitment to a "Midwestern strategy" where he'll target middle and working class white voters, mostly in the Midwest. How well all this will play out I don't know. But it certainly sets up the dynamics of this campaign for the rest of the election.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-12 @ 16:12:16
I know it pulls me towatds him...despite my other disagreements and even disagreements on the budget proposal...I just do not see an Obama plan to reduce which WE NEED most...

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	56/56	45/56	101/112	90.2%	30	1	77	T
2012 Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	7	1	40	T
2012 Rep Primary	45/52	19/52	64/104	61.5%	42	-	25	T
2010 Senate	35/37	30/37	65/74	87.8%	26	1	5
2010 Governor	34/37	27/37	61/74	82.4%	6	1	29	T
2008 President	52/56	44/56	96/112	85.7%	19	1	74	T
2008 Dem Primary	37/52	19/52	56/104	53.8%	15	-	58	T
Aggregate Predictions	291/323	206/323	497/646	76.9%