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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-10 Version:18

Prediction Map
darthpi Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
darthpi Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem326
 
Rep212
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem275
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos72
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-3-1-33262326-33
Rep+3+1+33000222179+33
Ind0000000000


Analysis

President Obama continues to improve his chances for re-election, as Pennsylvania moves into the solid column and Ohio enters lean territory. Virginia is right on the boundary between lean and tossup right now, and with more consistently good polling performance the President will move that state into the lean column as well.

Mitt Romney is maintaining his leads in the core group of states that he needs to hold to even have a chance, but the fact that he is in a dead heat in a normally red state like North Carolina and is trailing somewhat consistently in Florida does not bode well for the former governor.

As for Romney's running mate, right now it looks as though Paul Ryan very well might be the favorite. Quite frankly, I think this would be a terrible decision for Romney to make, as I doubt Wisconsin could be put in play, and Paul Ryan's presence on the ticket seems likely to do more harm than good, particularly with the 45-60 year old demographic, given what his budget proposal would mean for Medicare. It would force the issue of health care back into the spotlight as well, which is hardly an issue that Mitt Romney wants to be discussing.

If I were Mitt Romney, I would pick Marco Rubio as a running mate. His background is a plus, and he would help put an absolute must-win state for the governor back into a more viable position, whereas now Florida is slowly trending toward Lean Obama status. It would also provide an upbeat note going into the convention, something that Romney could certainly use right about now.

Nationwide Popular Vote

Obama (D): 50.8%
Romney (R): 47.7%
3rd Party: 1.5%


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: darthpi (D-PA) 2012-08-11 @ 00:55:57 prediction Map
Breaking: Ryan is VP pick

I can't believe Romney is actually going with Ryan as his VP pick. Such a terrible strategic move.

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-08-11 @ 10:41:22 prediction Map
I don't think its that bad. In fact I don't know if it does much at all. I agree that he should have picked Rubio, that was really my top choice along with McDonnell and Jindal. At least its not Tim Pawlenty.

And hey we have the same map now!

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-11 @ 15:58:23 prediction Map
I agree with CR, Ryan may be what Obama wanted but I still think it is a net plus for the ticket ...I mean it certifies that ROmney is in this for change and economic stimulation and fiscal responsibility.

That is my key issue but not my only one.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-11 @ 16:00:00 prediction Map
I want to emphasize that I am a moderate Democrat who has never voted GOP in my election history since voting against GOP in 1964....although I came to appreciate AU H2O big time.

 By: darthpi (D-PA) 2012-08-11 @ 16:37:24 prediction Map
Maybe I'm missing something, but how does a budget that increases unemployment by approximately 4 million Americans by 2014 qualify as "economic stimulation"?

http://www.epi.org/blog/paul-ryan-budget-discretionary-cuts-cost-jobs/

How does a tax policy that "isn’t mathematically possible" according to a tax analysis group that Romney himself once called "objective" qualify as fiscally responsible?

http://factcheck.org/2012/08/romneys-impossible-tax-promise/

I realize that there need to be reforms to our tax policy and spending policies, but could you really vote for a guy who wouldn't accept a 10:1 spending cuts to revenue increases deal?

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_08/tentoone_isnt_good_enough_for031484.php

I agree that Romney-Ryan now represents fundamental changes to the structure and purpose of government, but I fail to see how those changes would be for the better.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-12 @ 09:46:08 prediction Map
Well, I think different analysis produce different results. That they are willing to tackle the budget which is bloated represents something new or not at least since Clinton.

The budget needs drastic cuts to be aligned with income and then we need to increase taxes to reduce the debt.

I may not agree with Ryan on some details but he is not an iconoclastic budgeter and would work with the other side.

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-08-12 @ 13:33:28 prediction Map
The idea here is symbolism. That's almost as important in a campaign as the actual issues themselves. Ryan's selection makes the GOP ticket under Romney totally centered on the economy and the nation's fiscal ills. Whether you agree with the tactics or not they are going to address the debt, budget, spending, taxes, healthcare costs, energy, and general size of government under this central theme. Really there is no one better that Romney could have picked to nail this home. Plus it shows his commitment to a "Midwestern strategy" where he'll target middle and working class white voters, mostly in the Midwest.

How well all this will play out I don't know. But it certainly sets up the dynamics of this campaign for the rest of the election.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-12 @ 16:12:16 prediction Map
I know it pulls me towatds him...despite my other disagreements and even disagreements on the budget proposal...I just do not see an Obama plan to reduce which WE NEED most...


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T
Aggregate Predictions 291/323 206/323 497/646 76.9% pie


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