Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-11 Version:20

Prediction Map
Ernest Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
Ernest Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	326
Rep	212
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	243
Rep	190
Ind	0
Tos	105

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-1	-33	26	2	326	-33
Rep	+3	+1	+33	0	0	0	22	2	179	+33
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

My totally gut feeling as to what the rumored announcement of Ryan will do long term.

Florida: 40% D to 50% D
Iowa: 40% R to 50% R
New Hampshire: 50% D to 40% D

I had been considering before the announcement changing Wisconsin from Tossup D to Lean D, but not now.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

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User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	55/56	40/56	95/112	84.8%	48	1	314	T
2012 Senate	32/33	26/33	58/66	87.9%	22	0	2	T
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	2	1	89	T
2012 Rep Primary	36/52	13/52	49/104	47.1%	18	-	75	T
2010 Senate	34/37	28/37	62/74	83.8%	2	3	21	T
2010 Governor	33/37	29/37	62/74	83.8%	1	3	17	T
2009 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	137	92	T
2008 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	79	1	100	T
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	28/33	61/66	92.4%	17	2	2
2006 Governor	35/36	29/36	64/72	88.9%	16	2	6	T
2004 President	53/56	41/56	94/112	83.9%	47	1	66	T
Aggregate Predictions	375/409	282/409	657/818	80.3%