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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-11 Version:5
|Prediction Key||Confidence Key|
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
With the decision of Romney/RNC to suspend advertising in PA, MI and WI, those states are now firmly in the Obama column. I've long thought Romney's chances in these states (as well as MN and NM) were very long, but this confirms that these states won't be in play this November unless the national atmosphere shifts strongly against Obama, and in that case he'll already have lost the election.
Obama now has a solid floor of 247 EVs in which he can count on (The Kerry states minus NH and plus NM). Throw in NV, which is trending Democratic and Obama is near 50% in, and he's at 253 EV. And then comes Ohio, where Romney has been chronically weak. I've kept this state a tossup since my first map, believing that this bellwether state can never be far from the 50/50 position, but I can't keep ignoring the fact that Romney has been the underdog here since the state started to be polled. According to RCP, the state has had 33 public polls from Jan. 2011 to present, and Obama has led in 28 of them while Romney in just 4 while they were tied in one survey. That is pretty decisive, and I'm moving Ohio to lean Obama because of it.
Of the seven toss-up states, I see Obama getting them all except Arizona. His campaign has been trying to put that state into play by getting more Hispanics and young people registered to vote, but the results so far have been unclear. ATM, NC will have the narrowest margin of any state and it's quite possible Romney could still win it.
Edit: As I was updating, Romney seems to have picked Ryan (R-WI) as his running mate. Given that VP poll bonuses are small and that Ryan has never won a state-wide election in WI, I'm comfortable leaving it as a strong Obama state for now.
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