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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-12 Version:5

Prediction Map
FiveSenses82 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
FiveSenses82 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem255
 
Rep190
 
Ind0
 
Tos93
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-2-1-27272332-27
Rep+2+1+27000222179+27
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Romney's pick for VP demonstrates that Republicans still have not learned their lesson. It also demonstrates how their ideology blinds them to reality. Romney was already headed for a likely lose, but his pick for Paul Ryan is probably the final nail in the coffin. Democrats and Independent minded individuals warned of the disastrous consequences of picking Sarah Palin as VP, and they were right. Paul Ryan is not as bad of a choice as Palin, of course. Ryan is charismatic and intelligent, and, he is reactively likable. He is also a dream candidate for the very few conservative intellectuals left. But this isn't what the election is coming down to. Independents and the elderly are not going to like Paul Ryan. For every vote Romney gets from an enthused conservative, he will lose two.

Romney's only chance to win this election was to sit and wait for something bad to happen. He would have been far better off picking a safe canddiate, that would comfort the independet voter in the event that the economy does take a nose dive between now and November. I believe that Romney's choice for a VP is so bad, in fact, that even if the economy does drop again, he will still probably lose. Romney more than likely just kissed Florida goodbye. No Florida, no winning the election. He also is down in Ohio and Virginia.

But what do you expect from a party that is so ideloogical that they refuse to assess reality, and continue to fall back on their theories no matter how often they are disproven?


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Immortal Monk (D-CA) 2012-08-13 @ 02:17:15 prediction Map
I agree with everything you have to say.

Mitt Romney just kissed every chance he had of winning the Presidency goodbye!

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-13 @ 07:02:42 prediction Map
I do not think so, as Ryan is serious but flawed choice. He just tackled the economy and debt, deficit head on and that will appeal to some but I think as you do that Florida will be tougher for him. But he is making a midwestern ploy and that was a pretty good choice out here in the heartland. Besides being Catholic, he has carried a slightly Democratic district by huge margins even while Obama was winning it. And it is a heavily unionized district too. It gives him better chances in Iowa, Wisconsin and maybe Michigan. Let us see how the narritive develops.

 By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-08-13 @ 19:40:29 prediction Map
Dnul, this was all before the Democrats had defined Paul Ryan. Ryan is a "good" candidate, in the sense that he is charismatic (like an Obama or a Reagen), however, his policies are the wrong policies at the wrong time. He only sharpness the contrast between the two candidates and thus makes this election no longer simply about a referendum on Obama, but a battle over ideology. Right now, at this particular time and place, Obama wins on this issue. Paul Ryan energizes the conservative base, and gives them more MONEY, which is, yes, a win for them. But he loses them independent voters and ALSO energizes the Democratic base as well. I am sorry, people don't give a fuck about who is a catholic or not this time around. They don't care about social issues this time around. They care about jobs and the economy. And for the first time in a long time, the independent voter is siding with the democrats on taxes. And they should know that you never fuck with medicare.

 By: Nagas (D-CA) 2012-08-13 @ 21:04:12 prediction Map
I agree that this is where the map is today, and the most likely result in November. Obama has been leading in most polls in Florida and I think Ryan will only push it further into his column.

I think North Carolina will be too close to call and could fall either way on election night. Obama's GOTV operation there and the convention will boost the Democrats in NC.

 By: thornestorm (G-CA) 2012-08-13 @ 22:57:19 prediction Map
Yes, a conservative candidate's best chance to win the presidency is to hide their true beliefs and only reveal them after they are elected. This is something Bush did in 2000, hiding behind the phrase "compassionate conservative", and then enacting horrendous conservative policies after he won.

The thing is, conservative politicians don't care about the awful effects of their policies, and they don't care about reality. These policies aren't designed to help the economy or average people; they are an agenda beneficial to the wealthy and corporate interests to be achieved.

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-14 @ 09:11:58 prediction Map
Here we have still ANOTHER prediction that Pelosi will be House Speaker again!

Btw, I know Tea Partyer views are banned in the forum, but if they weren't, someone would be in there LAUGHING HARD at the idea of Paul Ryan being an "extremist budget cutter". His frickin' budget would balance in 28 years! (The real TP budget, presented by Sen. Rand Paul, would balance in five.)

Within a few years, the Democrats will adopt the Ryan budget because it's so wimpy and unrealistic.

Last Edit: 2012-08-14 @ 09:14:19

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-14 @ 09:16:55 prediction Map
Hey, thornstorm, what "horrendous conservative policies" did Bush enact? (And don't even try mentioning any that got substantial Democratic support. Anything that got substantial Democratic support is, ipso facto, not conservative at all.)

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-14 @ 11:04:07 prediction Map
Five senses I am Catholic and i give a care about some issues that have arisen since Obama took office. I am a life long Democrat and have never voted for GOP BUT there is a serious problem with the budget deficit, too much government, and especially the debt...I do not want to become like the Weimar Republic or for those younger Greece.

The pick of Ryna draws me closer to voting GOP and I am not atypical....does it repel Independents and others - of course but here in the upper midwest it is a good choice...
the articulate Ryan will be able to counter the equally articulate Biden...

And I believe the super PAC's may cancel each other out...more GOP dollars being spent this time then DEM dollars...

I come from a heavily Catholic area in central MN where this pick is playing well and our area is a swing area...

Just like I said that picking ROmney makes some evangelicals queasy - this pick make some Catholics more open to the ticket...


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie 13 10 314T
Aggregate Predictions 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie



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