Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Advertisements

Advertise on the Atlas

Election Data

Become a Member

History Posters!
Race to the Moon

Election and History Posters from History Shots!
Note: click will open in new window if pop-ups allowed

Date of Prediction: 2012-08-20 Version:40

Prediction Map
dnul222 Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
dnul222 Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	332
Rep	206
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	257
Rep	195
Ind	0
Tos	86

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-2	-1	-27	27	2	332	-27
Rep	+2	+1	+27	0	0	0	22	2	179	+27
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

I am back to my probable Obama map for the Fall - this might change if some movement towards ROmney Ryan is sustained through the convention and debates overcoming Obama's turn at his convention. But in the end it will be a base election with independents casting fewer ballots as most of us have made up our minds it seems...a big debate gaffe by either side could turn it into a close race for ROmeny victory or a rout for Obama victory-this is my optimistic map for Obama.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-20 @ 06:29:51
The senate races are a scramble and i expect more changes then at first with some more GOP losing and some more DEM incumbents winning....comments can matter- a slip on a topic can revive a seemingly dead campaign as might be happening in Missouri...we shall see. Watching Indiana, Nevada for changes and Mass., Connecticut, VIrginia, FLorida, ND and Montana....right now its NE for ME...

By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-08-20 @ 07:12:15
Other than AZ and NH this map will probably be my next one. NH will probably be pink and a tossup; AZ is a baffling tossup for you to pick since Romney leads by an average of 8% over the last 3 months. 7-25 Public Policy Polling Romney 52% Obama 41% 6-26 Rasmussen Romney 54% Obama 41% 6-05 Public Policy Polling Romney 49% Obama 46% 5-20 Public Policy Polling Romney 45% Obama 41% 05-02 Magellan Strategies Romney 52% Obama 43%

By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-08-20 @ 07:15:35
And WV as lean is curious, Romney leads by an average of 16.6% in the 3 polls conducted there. Last one was Romney 54% Obama 37% by R.L. Repass & Partners on April 28th; no one has even bothered polling since then. edit: Montana too, Obama loses by 7%-17% in every poll taken there except for one in which he lost by 2%. edit #2: Indiana too, the closest in any poll Obama comes to Romney is 6% and loses by 10.3% on average. I guess my next map won't look that much like yours after all. Last Edit: 2012-08-20 @ 07:26:25

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-20 @ 15:11:26
If I have WV as lean it is a mistake, but I feel that Arizona will be closer than average and this is my November thoughts....I still expect it to be with ROmney, same with Indiana but I expect it to be single digits....so I do not disagree with you if my map were for today...and the end result is the same even for November... I still see Ryan hurting ROmney in NH, FLorida and some other states but helping in most other states.

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-20 @ 17:14:53
dnul, Ryan won't hurt in Florida. Seniors are far more frightened here by ObamaCare -- which only his defeat in this election can thwart -- than they are by Ryan's proposal that, even on the chance it's enacted, never affects them. Let me offer a fact: If you look at the top one-third Congressional districts that had the most seniors in the 2010 elections, you'll see that before the election they were represented by 83 Democrats and 61 Republicans; after, by 49 Democrats and 95 Republicans. In other words, the GOP won more seats (34) in the oldest one-third of the CDs than it won (29) in the other two-thirds COMBINED. Go to this website, click on the lefthand box that says "Electoral Explorer" and you can get the same statistics yourself: http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/house Obama lost Florida on Mar. 23, 2010. Last Edit: 2012-08-20 @ 17:20:48

By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-08-20 @ 17:51:18
Well, I think the more important statistic is that seniors are just plain more conservative, and many (if not most) of those seats in that category are in conservative areas. And they tend to show up in big numbers, even for non-Presidential elections. Again, the main problems in 2010 for the Dems was that the economy was bad and the Dems were the incumbent party. Many of the seats they lost were in conservative areas (not a surprise considering today's polarization, and considering that a lot of voters cast protest votes in 2010). I'm inclined to say that the Affordable Care Act was not that big of an issue, especially considering that its popularity at that time was actually around 50/50, if I remember correctly. Again, I would have to go back to that NY-26 special election in 2011 for more proof. Democrat Kathy Hochul was running in a conservative district against a heavily favored opponent who outspent her 2:1. She ran on one issue: the Ryan Medicare plan. And she won. Seniors have proven again and again that, although they are a generally conservative group, they WILL revolt over this issue. Just because it doesn't directly affect them doesn't make a lot of difference.

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-20 @ 18:48:00
Special elections are funny ones. For example, Anthony Wiener's Brooklyn, NY, district elected a Tea Party Republican! Anyway, if Hochul holds on to her seat this year while again running against RyanCare, then maybe you're on to something. And seniors used to be a key part of the Democratic constituency. Now that's gone. Maybe the Democrats can make up for it somewhere else -- with felons maybe? -- but the majority of seniors will never trust the Democrats again.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-21 @ 04:50:32
The reason I now see Ryan hurting is the current debate over abortion. Unfortunate as it is the current debate temporarily derails the economy talk. I believe that suburbanites in NH, FLorida and Pennsylvania will not favor what they perceive to be the more extreme positions of Ryan...it is more a suburban thing for me than health care or abortion. I like your link about 2010 and agree about Obamacare, but Ryan's budget is more current in the news and people are moving back to Obama because of it, if he can get the nuns and bishops against him then that is significant to me. In that I mean 2-3% swing.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-23 @ 19:08:02
I think if i were to make a new map I would shift Florida but in the end it may stay with Obama narrowly....lots of stuff happening after Isaac leaves.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-29 @ 07:32:54
Well it seems this is a good place to be...332-206 and I will stay here until after the Democratic convention. In the end it will be close one way or the other!

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-29 @ 09:07:42
As I've said: Any prediction that Obama will win more than 330 EVs is a prediction that Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker again. Yesterday, I looked at the RCP House race polls. It showed 23 races as "tossups". If the Repubs sweep them, they gain 10 seats; if the Democrats sweep them, they gain 13. In other words, it's pretty close to MY prediction that NEITHER party will gain even 10 seats. The Democrats need 25 seats to make Nancy Speaker again. Only if and when the polls point to THAT will I believe that Obama can win 330+ EVs.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-29 @ 13:22:45
I fully expectPelosi not to be speaker and people will split ballots massively this year on a variety of levels... I have Bachmann for my member of congress and she is not well liked in my section of the district which has 1/4 of the population and is swing, we have not voted for her yet and her opponent is from the local city...she will win but our portion will again support a pro life democrat-yes they exist up here in central MN. Last Edit: 2012-08-29 @ 19:04:57

By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-09-01 @ 04:06:47
Just saw your comment on another map about NV, here's some: Hispanic unemployment rate hovering around 14.5% with a 2012 Nevada unemployment average of 12.130% and a Las Vegas average of 12.584%. Even that number is misleading. Here is a snip from an article about unemployment which shows how the unemployment rate is artifically lowered and I'll leave a link to the full article at the bottom: "The two biggest differences between the U-3 official rate of unemployment and the U-6 full rate of unemployment are in the treatment of the long-term unemployed and involuntary part-time workers. For example, if you've been out of work for a long time and you badly want a job, but you know from your long search that nobody in your area is hiring; you already have applications on file at every reasonable prospect, and you haven't filled out a new application recently - then from an official (U-3) perspective, you are not only no longer unemployed, you just became a non-person altogether. Alternatively, if you have a master's degree in engineering, lost your job, and are working 15 hours a week (the most you can get) in a convenience store at minimum wage to keep a little money coming in, then from an official (U-3) perspective you would be fully employed." http://danielamerman.com/articles/2012/WorkC.html

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-09-01 @ 07:00:35
thanks for the comments, what about new reegistrations that some times tells the trend lines too.

By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-09-02 @ 22:15:51
In Nevada Democrats had a 100,000 voter edge in 2008, now it is down to 47,500. In Iowa Republicans have increased their lead five months in a row, it is up to 21,589 now. On election day 2008 Dems had a 106,000 voter edge in Iowa and now they will be down between 20,000 and 30,000. In Florida a 2008 700,000 voter edge has been dramatically reduced to 440,000 in 2012. In Colorado Republicans now have a 110,000 voter edge compared to a 11,000 edge in 2008. I could go on but you get the general idea of why I think Romney will do 2-4% better in most states then what the poll averages will indicate; current polling organizations rely too much on the turnout percentages from 2008.

By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-09-02 @ 23:16:22
Obama is at only 43% for job approval http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx There are R governors in Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Mexico and New Jersey; D for Colorado and North Carolina Romney has also been raising a lot of money over the last couple of months and banking it since he couldn't spend it until he was offically the nominee; he has almost 200 million waiting to be spent now and that doesn't include the republican PACs who are expected to easily outspend democrat PACs. Contrast that with 2008 when Obama + dem PACs outspent McCain by almost 3-1!

By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-09-02 @ 23:36:43
There is also a building buzz that Obama is looking to buy and move into this property in January http://www.honolulumagazine.com/Honolulu-Magazine/Real-Estate/July-2011/As-seen-on-Hawaii-Five-0-Fantastic-Kailua-estate/

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-09-03 @ 13:19:34
Have you looked into the popularity of some of these governors? Florida in the 30% range, Ohio in the 30% range....it is a tough environment for anyone to try and solve problems.... I may not like him but both Wisconsin and NJ have done well in solving budget crises although on the back of the middle class.....

By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-09-03 @ 13:49:36
I smell crazy again... I love these Republicans with their conspiracy theories. "Oh look! Obama thinks he is going to lose and he is going to buy some property!" You also can't cherry pick the polls, canuck. In the very least average them. You can find a poll out there to confirm about any opinion you want to express. It doesn't mean crap.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-09-03 @ 15:45:54
I liked the property line too, any good American would be looking for property now if they had the money...I know foreigners are buying US realestate like crazy.. I like FIve Senses no nonsense approach to analyzation! My kind of analyst. I was talking to the poll taker in our area who works for St. CLoud State University. He says he has never seen the GOP so disheartened in MN. The GOP expect to lose seats in state legislature and may lose control of one branch of the legislature... Money is flowing out of our state to fund federal races elsewhere...

By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-09-04 @ 02:30:49
The fact Obama wants a home to be able to move into by January means he believes there is a good chance he'll need one and is being pragmatic, not that he's throwing his hands up in the air and giving up. Politicans don't use public polls, they use their own and there is a big difference right now between the Obama and Romney campaigns internal polls and the public ones.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-09-05 @ 14:49:40
I think it is a false conclusion other than a growing family with changing needs looking at a very advantageous time to by new. Of course it is pragmatic that it is 50-50 election but many on his team think they have it won already...wrong.

By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-09-05 @ 21:12:59
Lol!

By: thornestorm (G-CA) 2012-09-06 @ 01:59:39
Pennsylvania, which Romney can't afford to lose by more than about 5% if he wants to win nationally, isn't even being contested. David Shuster reports that according to internal Obama polling, Obama is winning Ohio by 9(!) points. Assuming both points are true, this election is about over. Obama's team has no doubt done tons of message testing on focus groups(check out an example of such work on DemocracyCorps.com). They have probably come to the conclusion that there is simply no argument that Romney can make that will allow him to win the election. And especially after Bill Clinton's performance at the DNC, only serious gaffes by Obama during the debates or a massive economic downturn can save Romney.

By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-09-06 @ 02:06:42
Unfortunately we have the economy to still worry about. If it tanks, Obama does too. However, baring some unexpected circumstance.... Obama has this in the bag. If the jobs report doesn't dampen Obamas speech, my guess is we will be looking this convention as the moment the Obama won. Even Republicans know ( though most won't admit it) the Republicans just got served.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-09-06 @ 06:35:19
I feel the DEM convention has been great for them but reality sets in on Friday with the jobs report. That can take the extra wind out of the sails although it may not change the najority of us and how we are already determined to vote...Romney will do better than McCain but by how much remains to be seen...

By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-09-06 @ 14:00:24
But do we know what the jobs report is supposed to be like? It could be good, right? If it is good, it will only add to their already superior performance. If it is bad... you are right, it could really kill everything. It is completely silly and irrational. But no one of any sense ever accused the average person of being rational.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-09-07 @ 06:33:14
The jobs report is mixed, good enough to stir markets upward. 200,000 plus jobs not great but better, 8.3 un employment no decline but no increase either-not like the European economies... decrease in bymber seeking benefits...good and surprising.. so the spin can go either way0 a neutral jobs reports which will do no harm to the convention performance... we have a long way to go and need practical solutions which call for cooperation in government....can it happen if Obama wins? I think it can... if ROmney wins, I think it can....in other words maybe the election outcome really does not matter!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	54/56	30/56	84/112	75.0%	46	2	630	T
2012 Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	8	3	283	T
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	78	157	T
2012 Rep Primary	26/52	4/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	154	T
2010 Senate	34/37	11/37	45/74	60.8%	50	7	306	T
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	26	6	143	T
2008 President	53/56	24/56	77/112	68.8%	83	1	625	T
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	122	281	T
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	286	212	T
Aggregate Predictions	280/326	118/326	398/652	61.0%