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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-21 Version:46

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem310
 
Rep228
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem237
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos95
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-4-1-49252310-49
Rep+4+1+49000222179+49
Ind0000000000


Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election
Tossup Obama-D states.
IA-6,WI-10,OH-18,and FL-29=63ev
Tossup Romney-R states
CO-9,MO-10,VA-13,and NC-15=47ev
Lean Obama-D states.
NH-4,NV-6,MI-16,and PA-20=46ev(109ev)
Lean Romney-R states.
SC-9,AZ-11,IN-11,and GA-16=47ev(94ev)
Likely Obama-D states.
NM-5,OR-7,MN-10,and NJ-14=36ev(145ev)
Likely Romney-R states.
MT-3,ND-3,SD-3,and TX-38ev=47ev(141ev)
Solid Obama-D states (165ev)
Solid Romney-D states (87ev)


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-21 @ 18:21:16 prediction Map
Obama-D wins re-election due to narrow victory in either FL-29 or OH-18.
Obama-D is favored to win the Gore/Kerry states including NH-4,IA-6,and WI-10 plus NV-6.
Romney-R wins the Dole/McCain states including CO-9,MO-10,VA-13,and NC-15.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-21 @ 19:22:56 prediction Map
2012 US Senate Election.
Republican victory by margin over 20 percent.
WY(Barrasso-R)38R
MS(Wicker-R)39R
TN(Corker-R)40R
UT(Hatch-R)41R
TX(Cruz-R)42R
Republican victory by margin between 15-20 percent.
NE(Fischer-R)43R
Republican victory by margin between 10-15 percent.
AZ(Flake-R)44R
Republican victory by margin between 5-10 percent.
WI(Thompson-R)45R
NV(Heller-R)46R
Democratic victory by margin over 20 percent.
VT(Sanders-I)31D
DE(Carper-D)32D
NY(Gillibrand-D)33D
MD(Cardin-D)34D
MN(Klobuchar-D)35D
RI(Whitehouse-D)36D
CA(Feinstein-D)37D
ME(King-I)38D
Democratic victory by margin between 15-20 percent.
WV(Manchin-D)39D
HI(Hirono-D)40D
PA(Casey-D)41D
WA(Cantwell-D)42D
Democratic victory by margin between 10-15 percent.
MI(Stabenow-D)43D
NJ(Menendez-D)44D
CT(Murphy-D)45D
Democratic victory by margin between 5-10 percent.
NM(Heinrich-D)46D
OH(Brown-D)47D
FL(Nelson-D)48D
Tossup States are
IN(Mourdock-R vs Donnelly-D)
MA(Brown-R vs Warren-D)
MO(McCaskill-D vs Akin-R)
MT(Tester-D vs Rehberg-R)
ND(Heitkamp-D vs Berg-R)
VA(Kaine-D vs Allen-R)
Democrats win VA=(Purple state and Kaine-D has more crossover appeal than Allen-R.) 49D
Republicans win MT(Rehberg-R is the less crazy red state Republican US Senate candidate.) and ND(state is too red for Heitkamp-D to win.) 48R
The too close to call races are
IN(Red State-Republican Nominee Mourdock-R is a Rightwing extremist and Democratic Nominee has crossover appeal but maybe liberal among Indiana voters.)
MA(Blue State-Republican incumbent Brown-R has crossover appeal and Democratic challenger Warren-D is a celebrity candidate ie Franken(D-MN). Recount state.
MO(Red State-McCaskill-D is a weak incumbent but Akin-R is the weakest challenger.
If Democrats retain control of the US Senate-It is thanks to Republican primary voters in IN and MO.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-21 @ 20:29:20 prediction Map
WI-10 is the only Kerry State-Romney-R has a narrow lead in.
VA-13 and CO-9 are the only Dole States-Obama-D is polling ahead in.
Obama-D wins the Kerry States minus WI-10=236ev. Obama-D wins NH-4,OR-7,MN-10,MI-16,and PA-20 by a margin between 5-10 percent.
Obama-D wins NM-5 by a double digit margin.=241ev
Obama-D wins NV-6 by a high single digit margin=247ev.
Obama-D narrowly wins VA-13=260ev
Obama-D is also going to carry CO-9 and IA-6.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-21 @ 20:49:05 prediction Map
2012 MA US Senate Race.
Warren's final campaign strategy against Brown should be to remind Non Partisan Democratic and Independent voters that a vote for Brown is a vote for McConnell as Senate Majority Leader. Jim Inhofe will be a committee chairman.
Baldwin(D-WI) and Berkley(D-NV) should adopt the same strategy against their Republican opponents-Thompson(R-WI) and Heller(R-NV).

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-21 @ 23:15:38 prediction Map
Obama-D is favored to recieve 201ev(NM-5,OR-7,and MN-10).
Romney-R is favored to recieve 206ev(IN-11,MO-10,and NC-15).
Obama-D wins the battleground states in the Northeast- NH-4 and PA-20=225ev, battleground states in the Southwest-NV-6 and CO-9=240ev. Romney-R wins all of the battleground Midwestern states.-OH-18,MI-16,WI-10,and IA-6=256ev.
That leaves the battleground states in the South-FL-29 and VA-13. Obama-D wins FL-29 and VA-13=He wins with 283ev.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-21 @ 23:51:35 prediction Map
US Senate.
Democratic Freshmen.
1)CT(Murphy-D)
2)HI(Hirono-D)
3)ME(King-I)
4)NM(Heinrich-D)
5)VA(Kaine-D).
Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents who are likely to get re-elected. Brown(D-OH) and Nelson(D-FL) will get more votes than Obama-D in their home state. McCaskill(D-MO) is the Democratic Party's 50th vote.
Tester(D-MT) is likely to be the only incumbent that loses re-election.(Rehberg-R is a 6 term at Large US House Member and less insane than the other Republicans running for office.
Besides Rehberg(R-MT), The other Republican freshmen US Senators are going to be
AZ(Flake-R)
NE(Fischer-R)
TX(Cruz-R)
WI(Thompson-R)
Vulnerable Republican Incumbents Brown(R-MA) and NV(Heller-R)-could win based on their individual popularity or lose based on the national environment and state Democratic leaning.
The 51st seat is either IN(Donnelly-D) or ND(Heitkamp-D).


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 Senate /34 /34 /68 % pie
P 2014 Senate 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 97 16 42T
P 2014 Governor 28/36 16/36 44/72 61.1% pie 1 325 171T
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 145/161 105/161 250/322 77.6% pie



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