Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-22 Version:47

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	332
Rep	206
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	237
Rep	190
Ind	0
Tos	111

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-2	-1	-27	27	2	332	-27
Rep	+2	+1	+27	0	0	0	22	2	179	+27
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Solid Obama-D DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,NY-29,DE-3,MD-10,MA-11,RI-4,CA-55,and IL-20=142ev
Likely Obama-D ME-4,WA-12,CT-7,and NJ-14=37ev(179ev)
Lean Obama-D MN-10,NM-5,OR-7, and PA-20=42ev(221ev)
Solid Romney-R UT-6,OK-7,WY-3,ID-4,AL-9,AK-3,AR-6,LA-8,KS-6,WV-5,MS-6,NE-5,and KY-8=76ev
Likely Romney-R ND-3,TN-11,SD-3,and TX-38=55ev(131ev)
Lean Romney-R IN-11,GA-16,MT-3,SC-9,AZ-11,and MO-10=60ev(191ev)

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-22 @ 18:51:47
The Tossup battleground states are CO-9,FL-29,IA-6,MI-16,NV-6,NH-4,NC-15,OH-18,VA-13,and WI-10. Obama-D will win MI-16=237ev NV-6=243ev NH-4=247ev WI-10=257ev VA-13=270ev. or OH-18=239ev IA-6=245ev FL-29=274ev

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-22 @ 19:51:13
Looking at the US Senate-RCP has CT as a Tossup. While the Murphy-D vs McMahon-R race will be more competitive than expected-Murphy-D will end up winning by a high single digit margin. Democrats win VT(Sanders-I),DE(Carper-D),NY(Gillibrand-D),MD(Cardin-D),MN(Klobuchar-D),RI(Whitehouse-D),CA(Feinstein-D),ME(King-I),WV(Manchin-D),HI(Hirono-D),PA(Casey-D),WA(Cantwell-D),and NJ(Menendez-D) by a double digit margin. 43D Democrats win MI(Stabenow-D),NM(Heinrich-D),OH(Brown-D),CT(Murphy-D)and FL(Nelson-D) by a high single digit margin. 48D. Democrats win by a narrow margin. VA(Kaine-D) 49D Republicans win WY(Barrasso-R),MS(Wicker-R),TN(Corker-R),UT(Hatch-R),TX(Cruz-R),and NE(Fischer-R) by a double digit margin. 43R Republicans win AZ(Flake-R) and WI(Thompson-R) by a high single digit margin. 45R Republicans win by a narrow margin. ND(Berg-R)46R. The Tossup Races are IN(Mourdock-R vs Donnelly-D) MA(Brown-R vs Warren-D) MO(McCaskill-D vs Akin-R) MT(Tester-D vs Rehberg-R) NV(Heller-R vs Berkley-D)

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-08-23 @ 06:02:46
Democrats retaining control of the US Senate will be due to Obama-D coattails in MA(Warren-D),NV(Heller-D), or WI(Baldwin-D) and Republicsns in red states self destructing.-Akin-MO,Berg-ND,Mourdock-IN, and Rehberg-MT.

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-23 @ 08:46:08
About all I can say about this map is that it predicts the Democrats regain the House. Lots of luck with that.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-23 @ 19:09:54
I agree with whyte rain although Obama might win and the senate might be a tie, I can not say more than 6 seat gain for the house...just too much to overcome in redistricting and the genereal mood of the country. Even though many first year reps are in trouble many are facing a set of new voters more favorable than last time... Whyterain is correct. IMHO

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	52/56	43/56	95/112	84.8%	111	1	314	T
2012 Senate	31/33	21/33	52/66	78.8%	27	38	74	T
Aggregate Predictions	83/89	64/89	147/178	82.6%

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