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Date of Prediction: 2012-09-24 Version:22

Prediction Map
darthpi Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
darthpi Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem317
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos30
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-2-1-27272332-27
Rep+2+1+27000222179+27
Ind0000000000


Analysis

My concerns about the drought situation hurting President Obama in Iowa have largely been alleviated by the fact that he now has a consistent lead in all of the credible polling.

I'm somewhat tempted to move North Carolina into President Obama's column, but he hasn't yet hit 50% in any of the polling there. I think he might get dragged down a bit by the gubernatorial race there, hence why I have him still trailing there despite having a small lead in the most recent polls. If he's still leading there two or three weeks from now, expect a change.

And yes, that is Vermont at 70% Obama. I know it's a reach, but I think it could happen this year. McCain underperformed his polls there in 2008, barely getting 30% despite polling around 36%. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mitt Romney similarly underperform, and he's already polling below 30% there. It used to be a common thing for Vermont to vote nearly or over 70% Republican, back when the Republican Party was the more progressive party, and I think we have now reached the point where Vermont will once again be voting 70% for the more progressive candidate. If it doesn't happen this year, it will happen in the near future.

If Mitt Romney can't turn his campaign around with the debates, it is going to become nearly impossible to come up with a credible path for him to win the presidency.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: darthpi (D-PA) 2012-09-25 @ 00:32:04 prediction Map
I have a question for anyone who wants to take a crack at it: How is Mitt Romney not crushing President Obama in North Carolina?

North Carolina has 9.7% unemployment, Pat McCrory (the Republican candidate) has a consistent lead in all of the polling in the gubernatorial race, both chambers of the legislature are solidly Republican, and the state voted 61-39 earlier this year to enshrine a ban on same-sex marriage and civil unions into the state constitution. North Carolina should be a can of corn for Mitt Romney, yet he's behind in most of the recent polls. Even with the fact that Mitt Romney is a pathetic candidate running a trainwreck of a campaign, he should at least have a consistent slim lead in the race considering all of those factors, yet he can't even manage that. I'm a progressive Democrat who wants to see President Obama re-elected, and even I can't come up with an explanation for what is going on in that state.

What am I missing that accounts for this discrepancy?

Last Edit: 2012-09-25 @ 01:16:02

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-10-03 @ 08:23:20 prediction Map
I have some thoughts about NC. I know NC a great deal from people leaving southern WV leaving the area and traveling what is known as the "Hillbilly Highway" to find work.

There are a number of reasons NC is still a "tossup" state right now. Actually I'm with you on NC. I thought that Obama didn't have much of a shot of carrying it this time.

NC even when solidly Republican in presidential elections was always one of the most "purple" states in the Deep South at the state and local level. Bill Clinton almost carried NC in 1992 and 1996 as well. There actually are and have been a lot of popular Democratic politicians down in NC in the recent past and that's still the case right now. NC has always been more progressive and liberal than most people think compared to the rest of the Deep South.

You have what I call "Yankee flight" (that's how we say it here in southern WV lol). A lot of liberal Northeasterners are leaving their area going to NC for economic reasons. The weather has a lot to do with it as well.

You also have a very strong and steadily increasing 18 to 25 year old vote in NC as well, especially in Charlotte and the Research Triangle Park area of Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, and all three cities are also homes of college campuses, along with and thus fairly liberal college-aged students.

Winston-Salem and Greensboro are exploding in growth as well especially among the 18 to 25 year old population, and Winston-Salem too is a home of a fairly liberal university.

Also NC is trending from a 50-50 urban-rural state to a 75-25 urban state. People in the rural areas of NC are still very conservative for the most part, but the population trend is definitely towards the big cities and urban areas, at least for now.

Of course there is the high percentage of African-Americans, whose record turnout in 2008 definitely helped Obama carry NC.

The most underrated reason Obama is still very competitive in NC is actually the surprising explosion of the Hispanic population in NC believe it or not. I have family members who live in the Asheville-Hendersonville area and they say even there the Hispanic influence is fairly significant and a lot larger than you might think. I'm sure that's even more so the case in Charlotte, the Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and the Research Triangle Part of Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill. The Hispanic population is a very underrated part of NC politics.

Hope that cleared up some stuff about NC. NC looks to be a swing state for some time to come. GA and SC could very well turn "purple" too in the near future, for the very same reasons that NC has.

The high number of conservative West Virginians and southwestern Virginians moving to NC has not overcome the trending Democratic tide in NC, at least not yet. There have always been a lot people from here where I live who don't want to work in the coal mines and thus leave for NC after graduating from high school and college. That is why I-77 from Charleston WV to Charlotte NC is called the "Hillbilly Highway" for that very reason.



Last Edit: 2012-10-03 @ 08:29:11

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-03 @ 08:38:43 prediction Map
As I keep saying, the BEST polls are the ones done by the campaigns themselves. You won't see Obama spending much time in NC. He's given up on that one.

And yes, some sharp eyes have noticed that only the most massive "vote splitting" in history can account for the divergence between the Obama polls and the polls for the down-ticket races.

 By: darthpi (D-PA) 2012-10-05 @ 13:49:57 prediction Map
@bluemcdowell

That's an interesting point about the Hispanic population in North Carolina, and definitely not something I had taken into account. I sometimes forget that you can no longer talk only about the Southwest and Florida when talking about the Hispanic vote.

---

Not sure when I'll be doing my next update. A supbar debate for the President ought to be balanced out by a pretty good jobs report today, so I'm thinking the polls might be a bit volatile for the next few days. I imagine I'll have one up by next weekend, at the latest. If the polls don't look volatile, then I may have one out sooner.

For now I'm ignoring the WAA and Rasmussen polls, since I tend to think of both of those pollsters as hacks who are more interested in driving a narrative than anything else. FWIW the Gallup poll out today actually has President Obama increasing his margin post-debate, but that could easily just be statistical noise, and it sometimes takes a few days for the full effect of any event to sink in.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T
Aggregate Predictions 356/395 249/395 605/790 76.6% pie


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