Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-09-29 Version:22

Prediction Map
CR Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
CR Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	317
Rep	221
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	237
Rep	191
Ind	0
Tos	110

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-1	-42	25	2	317	-42
Rep	+4	+1	+42	0	0	0	22	2	179	+42
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Barack Obama (D-IL)/Joe Biden (D-DE): 50%
Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Paul Ryan (R-WI): 47%
Other: 3%

There are two ways this election could play out at this point depending on how the American people decide to make their choice.

1. The electorate will judge the race on our anemic economy and thus have a referendum on Obama's policies and presidency. Here Mitt Romney wins on a protest vote much as what happened in 2010.

2. The electorate will judge the race on incumbency and thus whether not Mitt Romney is a preferred alternative to the current administration. In this case Obama is reelected as people won't see much value in changing.

At the moment the second outcome is the most likely.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-09-29 @ 16:34:49
The problem of judging Obama on his performance is that many see the GOP 'no' congress as the reason Obama could not get anything passed, a partial truth in my mind but enough for many to blieve it is not obama's fault. But I agree with you CR that generally speaking they the public are trying to choose between two alternatives....

By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2012-10-01 @ 12:10:19
Hola, Amigo!!! Hope you are well, CR!!! Because there is such a huge amount of data I have collected and am reporting, I have organized the links to all of this stuff in one "one-stop-shop-till-you-drop" link over at BLOGGER. All of the latest goodies are there. Stop by, grab a link, bring a cup of java with you. Yes, Bonncaruso's nightly BATTLEGROUND REPORTS, ala 2008, are in full swing, but they are too html intensive to post here without a lot of headache. Go to the link, getcher goodies!!! shalom, y'all, BC

By: CR (--MO) 2012-10-02 @ 20:42:25
Greetings Bonn! I'm well. Busy busy busy but well. I hope things are going great for you across the ocean. I really enjoyed the read on your blog though I confess I have not had time to get through all of it. I really enjoyed the reads on Missouri. More goodies to behold I have no doubt. Again hope things are well and drop in any time! Shalom! CR

By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-10-03 @ 07:44:10
Hi ConservRep! How have you been doing recently? Sorry I haven't been on here for a while. So the race has surprisingly been focused on Romney instead of Obama like you just said. That is usually not the case in presidential elections, but some reason it is this time. It seems that Obama's campaign has done a terrific job so far deflecting all the attention from Obama on to Romney, much to my surprise. As of now it looks like Obama is in good shape. However that doesn't mean a thing. Carter was leading Reagan by about the same amount in 1980, and Dukakis was up on Bush Sr. in 1988. I think Ford was up on Carter too in 1976. Bill Clinton was considered to be in a virtual dead heat as well in both 1992 and 1996. Bush Jr. didn't really have a comfortable lead in either 2000 or 2004. This election is far from over. Obama still does have high negatives and there is still a quite large anti-Obama sentiment here in America right now. The question is how large the anti-Romney segment is large as the anti-Obama one or not. So far much to my surprise the anti-Romney sentiment has been more pronounced than the anti-Obama one, and that doesn't very happen very often in politics especially when all the negative focus is on the challenger and not the incumbent. You're right ConservRep it looks like this election will be decided on who's worse instead of who's better, at least for now: whether it be Romney or Obama. As they always say the "least of all evils" unfortunately. It's a crying shame that America's politics has gotten to this point... The debates could very well decide this election as well. As for your map I think CO still goes for Obama in this particular scenario, and probably IA as well. IA has been a really difficult state for me to read but I now think Obama has at least a slight edge there as well. WI seems to be very close to a "lean" margin right now too. FL, NC, and VA are all 50/50 dead heats right now. I think if Obama carries NC Romney is toast. If Obama carries NC than the rest of the tossup states will almost certainly go Obama's way as well. NV to my surprise seems to have been getting somewhat closer recently. Hmmm... It's still a long way to go until Election Day, even today October 2, and anything and everything can and will happen in politics. The debates could very well be Romney's best and perhaps even final shot to gain on Obama. Wait and see as always! Last Edit: 2012-10-03 @ 11:32:40

By: CR (--MO) 2012-10-13 @ 12:56:01
Map version 22 is now closed. Please move to my new map version 23. Thank you. ConservRep

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	25	2	489	T
2012 Senate	29/33	19/33	48/66	72.7%	6	2	144	T
2012 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%	5	2	24	T
2012 Rep Primary	46/52	17/52	63/104	60.6%	29	-	27	T
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	1	245	37	T
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	19	1	63	T
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	8	1	106	T
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	3	1	T
2008 President	47/56	28/56	75/112	67.0%	44	1	702	T
2008 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	7	1	257	T
2008 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	4	1	232	T
2008 Dem Primary	43/52	24/52	67/104	64.4%	22	-	23	T
2008 Rep Primary	34/49	15/49	49/98	50.0%	23	-	55	T
Aggregate Predictions	375/433	217/433	592/866	68.4%