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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-03 Version:3

Prediction Map
inddem76 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
inddem76 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem303
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem290
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos57
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-3-1-56262303-56
Rep+3+1+56000222179+56
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
94503653
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Just read through First Read and the MSNBC Marist Polls. Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio are clearly moving towards the President. I still have North Carolina in Romney's column. I think if the elction were today Obama would win Virginia by about 2 points, I think Romney would squeak out a win in Florida by 1 point. Obama wouled win Nevada and Colorado by 2-4 points. I think Obama leads nationally by 3-4 points. If you go to the electoral college Swingometer and enter in the scenario of a 3 point Obama win you get a map that looks exactly like mine.
Obama 303
Romney 235


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 55/56 39/56 94/112 83.9% pie 3 34 367T
Aggregate Predictions 55/56 39/56 94/112 83.9% pie


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