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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-03 Version:3

Prediction Map
Snigglie Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Snigglie Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem272
 
Rep266
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem247
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos85
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-5-1-87242272-87
Rep+5+1+87000222179+87
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Here's my updated map based on a 4% swing to the Republicans from the 2008 election. Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire, which were won by Romney with a 5% swing, end up being won by President Obama in this scenario. A swing of 4% would result in a popular vote of Romney 49.6%, Obama 48.9%. I think based on this, Romney is more likely to lose the election while receiving more popular votes.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 45/56 25/56 70/112 62.5% pie 7 20 730T
P 2012 Senate 25/33 12/33 37/66 56.1% pie 1 34 291T
Aggregate Predictions 70/89 37/89 107/178 60.1% pie


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