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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-03 Version:5

Prediction Map
WhyteRain Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
WhyteRain Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem253
 
Rep285
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem196
 
Rep285
 
Ind0
 
Tos57
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-8-1-106212253-106
Rep+8+1+106000222179+106
Ind0000000000


Analysis

I've said for well over a year that Romney was the weakest possible nominee for the GOP and I am grateful to have been proved right. He's trailing a president with 8.something% unemployment, trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see, $4+ gasoline, and embassies under attack around the world? Seriously? NO, SERIOUSLY?

OK, so I took a bunch of states away from my original, 11-03-2011 prediction, but I "kept them in spirit" by making them "tossups" -- meaning they are states that any real conservative alternative to Obama would've won.

On a personal note, if I were forced to choose between Romney and Obama, I'd vote for Obama. (Better to have a jerk who CAN'T get his idiot agenda passed than one who can.) However, I'm glad I'll be able to vote for Gary Johnson, and I HOPE that my ONE VOTE will be the one that decides Florida and steals the race from Romney.

P.S. I wanted to get this, my final prediction in before the debates, since I've been one who's said the debates won't matter.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-03 @ 19:18:59 prediction Map
OOOOPS!

Remember in one of my most recent comments when I said Univision had started investigating "Fast and Furious" and how that could hurt Obama in the Southwest?

Well, Obama must've read my comment!

"Obama appoints wife of Univision owner to UN diplomatic post"

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/09/26/3022322/obama-appoints-wife-of-univision.html

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-04 @ 07:14:15 prediction Map
OOOOPS!

Who was that dumbass who said the debates wouldn't matter? Oh yeah ... it was me. It's not that Romney did better than I expected, it's that Obama did worse. He better hope that, like Reagan after he bungled his first debate with Mondale in '84, he can bounce back with a boffo performance in another debate.

 By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-10-04 @ 09:47:13 prediction Map
The polls will tighten after this poor performance by Obama. You are correct for once. It wasn't that Romney did well, it was that Obama seemed weak.

Romney actually, again, lied his entire way through the debate, picking whatever position seemed the most popular.

However, as CNN poll showed, even this tragic mess of a performance by Obama only moved 30 something percent of undecided voters towards Romney. 50%ish still remain undecided.

In other words, like you said, the debate isn't going to have a huge impact. But I imagine it will have some, giving Romney more money and tightening the race.

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-17 @ 23:21:13 prediction Map
In my comment above, I said Obama needs "a boffo performance in another debate". He still does. (A mere win-on-points won't do it. Gore narrowly "won-on-points" in all his debates against Bush.)


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 52/56 39/56 91/112 81.3% pie 9 0 466T
Aggregate Predictions 52/56 39/56 91/112 81.3% pie



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