Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-03 Version:5

Prediction Map
WhyteRain Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
WhyteRain Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	253
Rep	285
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	196
Rep	285
Ind	0
Tos	57

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-8	-1	-106	21	2	253	-106
Rep	+8	+1	+106	0	0	0	22	2	179	+106
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

I've said for well over a year that Romney was the weakest possible nominee for the GOP and I am grateful to have been proved right. He's trailing a president with 8.something% unemployment, trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see, $4+ gasoline, and embassies under attack around the world? Seriously? NO, SERIOUSLY?

OK, so I took a bunch of states away from my original, 11-03-2011 prediction, but I "kept them in spirit" by making them "tossups" -- meaning they are states that any real conservative alternative to Obama would've won.

On a personal note, if I were forced to choose between Romney and Obama, I'd vote for Obama. (Better to have a jerk who CAN'T get his idiot agenda passed than one who can.) However, I'm glad I'll be able to vote for Gary Johnson, and I HOPE that my ONE VOTE will be the one that decides Florida and steals the race from Romney.

P.S. I wanted to get this, my final prediction in before the debates, since I've been one who's said the debates won't matter.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-03 @ 19:18:59
OOOOPS! Remember in one of my most recent comments when I said Univision had started investigating "Fast and Furious" and how that could hurt Obama in the Southwest? Well, Obama must've read my comment! "Obama appoints wife of Univision owner to UN diplomatic post" http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/09/26/3022322/obama-appoints-wife-of-univision.html

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-04 @ 07:14:15
OOOOPS! Who was that dumbass who said the debates wouldn't matter? Oh yeah ... it was me. It's not that Romney did better than I expected, it's that Obama did worse. He better hope that, like Reagan after he bungled his first debate with Mondale in '84, he can bounce back with a boffo performance in another debate.

By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-10-04 @ 09:47:13
The polls will tighten after this poor performance by Obama. You are correct for once. It wasn't that Romney did well, it was that Obama seemed weak. Romney actually, again, lied his entire way through the debate, picking whatever position seemed the most popular. However, as CNN poll showed, even this tragic mess of a performance by Obama only moved 30 something percent of undecided voters towards Romney. 50%ish still remain undecided. In other words, like you said, the debate isn't going to have a huge impact. But I imagine it will have some, giving Romney more money and tightening the race.

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-17 @ 23:21:13
In my comment above, I said Obama needs "a boffo performance in another debate". He still does. (A mere win-on-points won't do it. Gore narrowly "won-on-points" in all his debates against Bush.)

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	52/56	39/56	91/112	81.3%	9	0	466	T
Aggregate Predictions	52/56	39/56	91/112	81.3%

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