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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-03 Version:25
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
Polls aren't looking good for Romney at the moment. He's in a slightly better position than McCain was 4 years ago. According to RCP, Obama led McCain 49%-43%, as opposed to today Obama leads Romney 49%-46%. So, Obama is the same, while Romney is higher than McCain. And yes it is true 80% of the undecided will likely go to Romney. But 49% is too high. Not to mention Obama's approval rating is also 49%, which is way too high. Some people will vote for Obama even though they disapprove of him. So Romney needs to get Obama's approval down to 47% at worst. Bush's approval rating was 48% when he got re-elected by 3 points.
Keeping all that in mind, Romney will win all the states McCain won, hands down. Even PPP has him leading safely in MO and AZ. Romney will also win IN and NC, states Obama won by less than 1%. The third weakest Obama victory in 2008 was Florida, which he won by 3 points. RCP has him up by just 2 points: 48%-46%, which excludes the highly accurate RR and sometimes accurate PPP. If the incumbent wins by 3-4 points nationwide (in comparison to his 7 point victory in 2008), he would likely lose Florida, especially considering the fact that Jews and Seniors aren't happy with him.
In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 5 points. So could Romney carry Ohio in a nationwide Obama 4 point victory? Well, probably not. The polling makes the situation even worse for Romney. RCP has Obama up by 6 points, which is better than the rest of the nation. In fact, Romney is doing better in VA, CO, IA, and even NV. Not good.
In addition, Obama is at 49% in the other states he won, except VA. Although that state was inline with the rest of the country last time around, so Romney would likely lose it today.
I won't make another prediction until this weekend or Monday because I want to wait to see what the polls say after the first debate.
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