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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-03 Version:25

Prediction Map
applemanmat MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
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Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain


Polls aren't looking good for Romney at the moment. He's in a slightly better position than McCain was 4 years ago. According to RCP, Obama led McCain 49%-43%, as opposed to today Obama leads Romney 49%-46%. So, Obama is the same, while Romney is higher than McCain. And yes it is true 80% of the undecided will likely go to Romney. But 49% is too high. Not to mention Obama's approval rating is also 49%, which is way too high. Some people will vote for Obama even though they disapprove of him. So Romney needs to get Obama's approval down to 47% at worst. Bush's approval rating was 48% when he got re-elected by 3 points.

Keeping all that in mind, Romney will win all the states McCain won, hands down. Even PPP has him leading safely in MO and AZ. Romney will also win IN and NC, states Obama won by less than 1%. The third weakest Obama victory in 2008 was Florida, which he won by 3 points. RCP has him up by just 2 points: 48%-46%, which excludes the highly accurate RR and sometimes accurate PPP. If the incumbent wins by 3-4 points nationwide (in comparison to his 7 point victory in 2008), he would likely lose Florida, especially considering the fact that Jews and Seniors aren't happy with him.

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 5 points. So could Romney carry Ohio in a nationwide Obama 4 point victory? Well, probably not. The polling makes the situation even worse for Romney. RCP has Obama up by 6 points, which is better than the rest of the nation. In fact, Romney is doing better in VA, CO, IA, and even NV. Not good.

In addition, Obama is at 49% in the other states he won, except VA. Although that state was inline with the rest of the country last time around, so Romney would likely lose it today.

I won't make another prediction until this weekend or Monday because I want to wait to see what the polls say after the first debate.

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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President
P 2016 Senate /34 /34 /68 % pie
P 2016 Governor /12 /12 /24 % pie
P 2014 Senate 34/36 17/36 51/72 70.8% pie 10 5 200T
P 2014 Governor 32/36 15/36 47/72 65.3% pie 7 11 97T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 17 17T
P 2012 President 50/56 36/56 86/112 76.8% pie 31 2 591T
P 2012 Senate 28/33 16/33 44/66 66.7% pie 21 2 211T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 11 1 24T
P 2012 Rep Primary 35/52 14/52 49/104 47.1% pie 5 - 75T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 3 177 37T
P 2010 Senate 33/37 24/37 57/74 77.0% pie 28 2 100T
P 2010 Governor 36/37 28/37 64/74 86.5% pie 15 2 5T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 14 1T
P 2008 President 51/56 40/56 91/112 81.3% pie 29 4 200T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 12/33 44/66 66.7% pie 11 4 281T
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 6 4 86T
Aggregate Predictions 359/406 221/406 580/812 71.4% pie

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