Polls aren't looking good for Romney at the moment. He's in a slightly better position than McCain was 4 years ago. According to RCP, Obama led McCain 49%-43%, as opposed to today Obama leads Romney 49%-46%. So, Obama is the same, while Romney is higher than McCain. And yes it is true 80% of the undecided will likely go to Romney. But 49% is too high. Not to mention Obama's approval rating is also 49%, which is way too high. Some people will vote for Obama even though they disapprove of him. So Romney needs to get Obama's approval down to 47% at worst. Bush's approval rating was 48% when he got re-elected by 3 points.

Keeping all that in mind, Romney will win all the states McCain won, hands down. Even PPP has him leading safely in MO and AZ. Romney will also win IN and NC, states Obama won by less than 1%. The third weakest Obama victory in 2008 was Florida, which he won by 3 points. RCP has him up by just 2 points: 48%-46%, which excludes the highly accurate RR and sometimes accurate PPP. If the incumbent wins by 3-4 points nationwide (in comparison to his 7 point victory in 2008), he would likely lose Florida, especially considering the fact that Jews and Seniors aren't happy with him.

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 5 points. So could Romney carry Ohio in a nationwide Obama 4 point victory? Well, probably not. The polling makes the situation even worse for Romney. RCP has Obama up by 6 points, which is better than the rest of the nation. In fact, Romney is doing better in VA, CO, IA, and even NV. Not good.

In addition, Obama is at 49% in the other states he won, except VA. Although that state was inline with the rest of the country last time around, so Romney would likely lose it today.

I won't make another prediction until this weekend or Monday because I want to wait to see what the polls say after the first debate.

I'm getting really worried, as a Republican, about this election. Polls keep showing Obama consistently leading Iowa, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. However, they are all within the margin of error (1-4 points). I do believe these pollsters are oversampling Democrats based on the heavy turnout in 2008. The question is how much? If it's a tie, Romney is leading. If Obama is leading by a few points, it really is a tie. Romney is narrowly leading in Florida, Colorado, and Virginia so he will likely win those states. Pennsylvania is a toss up on my map, despite the poll numbers being close to MI and MN, because of the growth of fossil fuels in the state. I think it's closer than what the polls say.

A slight Obama win.

Another winning scenario for Romney.

Well the polls have Romney with a bounce. The problem is RR had Obama leading in Ohio 50%-49%. Not good. ALthough it is in the margin of victory, polls in OH have been pretty poor for Romney the entire cycle. So as you can see from this map, Romney would need to win every swing state, except PA and WI, to win without Ohio.

Polls aren't looking good for Romney at the moment. He's in a slightly better position than McCain was 4 years ago. According to RCP, Obama led McCain 49%-43%, as opposed to today Obama leads Romney 49%-46%. So, Obama is the same, while Romney is higher than McCain. And yes it is true 80% of the undecided will likely go to Romney. But 49% is too high. Not to mention Obama's approval rating is also 49%, which is way too high. Some people will vote for Obama even though they disapprove of him. So Romney needs to get Obama's approval down to 47% at worst. Bush's approval rating was 48% when he got re-elected by 3 points.

Keeping all that in mind, Romney will win all the states McCain won, hands down. Even PPP has him leading safely in MO and AZ. Romney will also win IN and NC, states Obama won by less than 1%. The third weakest Obama victory in 2008 was Florida, which he won by 3 points. RCP has him up by just 2 points: 48%-46%, which excludes the highly accurate RR and sometimes accurate PPP. If the incumbent wins by 3-4 points nationwide (in comparison to his 7 point victory in 2008), he would likely lose Florida, especially considering the fact that Jews and Seniors aren't happy with him.

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 5 points. So could Romney carry Ohio in a nationwide Obama 4 point victory? Well, probably not. The polling makes the situation even worse for Romney. RCP has Obama up by 6 points, which is better than the rest of the nation. In fact, Romney is doing better in VA, CO, IA, and even NV. Not good.

In addition, Obama is at 49% in the other states he won, except VA. Although that state was inline with the rest of the country last time around, so Romney would likely lose it today.

I won't make another prediction until this weekend or Monday because I want to wait to see what the polls say after the first debate.

Not looking good for Romney. He needs to shake up his staff and step up his game.

What happened to Virginia? Romney is doing better in most of the other swing states.

Obama is in his bounce week.

This is Obama's big bounce week. What's interesting is that polls generally are showing Romney closing in on Virginia, NC, and FL. However, Ohio is looking tougher.

Polls show Romney closing in on PA, MI, and WI.

Romney is doing poorly in Virginia right now. PPP recently came out with a survey showing Obama leading 50%-45%, and 50%-42%-4% if you include former U.S. Congressman Virgil Goode, who is running for president as a third party candidate. Even Rasmussen found Obama up 48%-46%. Now that shows a toss up, but 48% is pretty high. Most RR polls have Obama 47% or lower.

Romney is doing better in most of the other swing states, including Wisconsin. PPP and Rasmussen both had Romney leading 48%-47% in both of their recent polls. Obama is still doing well in Nevada, but I predict his numbers will implode once Romney exposes his record and mentions how Obama dissed Las Vegas a few years ago.

PPP has been overpolling Democrats recently. After they came out with an August survey of Obama leading 49%-47% in NC, they lost a lot of credibility in my book. I only take their surveys seriously if they are close to Rasmussen and the others.

Considering how close the national polls are, Romney is likely to win NC and FL.

Romney isn't doing well in the polls right now. He's losing nationwide by 2-3 points. He is also doing very poorly in Virginia and Ohio.

According to RCP, this is what would happen if the election were held today. Obama would win the popular vote, 51%-48%.

According to RCP, only three battlegrounds have Romney leading: FL (+1), NC (+3), and AZ (+4). So I call all states McCain won are safe right now, because it's a closer election than 2008. Yes, that includes Arizona and Missouri. I also think Romney will likely win Indiana, because Obama's approval rating there has imploded, more so than any other swing state. So Indiana is leaning Red.

All states Obama won by 0-10 points are toss-ups automatically. Out of all states Obama won by 11 or higher, only Wisconsin and Nevada are toss ups. Polls show Wisconsin is tight. As far as the Casino-based state, economy is bad enough Romney can come back. Romney is spending money in Michigan now, but the fact is Obama has the state locked because of the popularity of the auto bailout. New Mexico is leaning Blue, and not safe, because Bush won that state in 2004.

Back to standard map. This is a viable tie scenario. Why win Virginia and not Nevada? Obama insulted the casino industry and the city of Las Vegas. Not to mention, Nevada has the highest unemployment, bankruptcy, and foreclosures rates in the country. It's possible. Also, Obama hasn't spent money on Pennsylvania, indicating it's not a high priority on Romney's map.

Romney/Christie vs. Obama/Biden

I would not advise Romney to chose Christie. He wouldn't balance the ticket and the Southern conservatives would likely be pissed. However, they will show up to vote like every other election (e.i. moderates like McCain in 2008 and Bush 41 in 1992).

The moderate Christie, who supports amnesty and is best known for fighting labor corruption, may help Romney get the heavily Hispanic Southwest (Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada) and would dominate states with the lowest amount of union voters, mostly in the Southeast (Florida, NC, and Virginia).

However, Christie's opposition to union rights would likely alienate voters in the heavily unionized mid-west (Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, etc). Pennsylvania and Ohio are tricky. Both have a very high amount of union voters. Ohio Governor John Kasich's agenda hasn't been very popular. Kasich's and Christie's unpopularity in Ohio may allow Obama to win by the same margin as 2008, if not smaller. Back in 2010 in Pennsylvania, Toomey beat Sestak by two points, 51%-49%. Kerry won this state in 2004 by 3 points, so Obama would likely carry it by 3-5 points.

Then there's New Jersey. Christie is extremely popular in the state. Part of the reason why NJ is typically a Blue State is because it's the most expensive state to campaign in and Democrats almost always outspend Republicans. If Romney and Christie spend enough money, they could make blue NJ competitive. Let's look at the presidential election in 2004. Kerry defeated Bush in NJ by 7 points. I think Obama would still eke out a victory, winning by 2-4 points.

Right now this is where the race stands based on reliable 2012 polls. Obama's approval is higher than usual right now, and will not likely last.

Obama is leading in Iowa right now. This is a minimum Republican win.

fixed up percentages

Governor Kasich's unpopular policies in Ohio could help Obama.

+5 points nationwide (Republican wins 51%-49%)
Few exceptions: Obama over-performed in Nevada/West Virginia.

Pawlenty/Perry vs. Obama/Biden 2012