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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-04 Version:12

Prediction Map
FiveSenses82 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
FiveSenses82 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem318
 
Rep220
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem284
 
Rep181
 
Ind0
 
Tos73
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-2-1-41272318-41
Rep+2+1+41000222179+41
Ind0000000000


Analysis

My final map!

After Obama losing the debate last night, polls should tighten a bit. However, Romney did win by lying all night long. He also did what he has been doing all campaign: he treated issues like darts , throwing them waiting to see which ones will stick and hit the bull's eye.

I imagine this will continue be a long term problem for him.

If Romney ever takes the lead on RCP polling average, for more than a couple days at tops, then Obama is in trouble. However, I don't expect Romney to still, to ever take the lead.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-10-08 @ 12:15:32 prediction Map
It's Monday.

I would say good news for Romney in as far as things can be good for a candidate that is more than likely heading to a lose.

Romney still can't break that 47/48. I imagine his actual ceiling, in reality, is 49%. But I don't imagine this showing up in polls. In other words, I wouldn't be surprised if Romney gets 49% of the vote, but more than that... I doubt it. I still maintain that he has a ceiling he can't break. And the polls seem to be demonstrating my hypothesis.

However, their have been very few polls since Romney's winning debate performance. This should frustrate both sides. It is hard to get a good picture on exactly what is going on.

The polls that came out today, however, are indicating that Obama is still holding his slim leads in the swing states. Since I took Ohio out of the swing state category, Obama only needs to win one of these swings states to win the election. If he doesn't, it is an electoral tie, and ultimately a Romney win.

If Romney performs flawlessly between here on out, I imagine he could win. This is very unlikely though. I think Nate Silvers analysis continues to give the best and most accurate odds.

 By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-10-09 @ 14:29:06 prediction Map
Wow. So this is bad. From the perspective of someone who actually cares about people and this country moving forward.

It is pretty clear now that Romney is somewhere about even with Obama. He still has yet to get above that 48% percent (on the polling averages), but it is becoming clear now that he can in fact win. I fully admit to being wrong about this.




 By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-10-12 @ 09:03:01 prediction Map
North Carolina should at least be a tossup.

 By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-10-13 @ 18:56:20 prediction Map
Sorry. NC was a mistake on my map. No way Obama is going to win it at this point. it should be leans Romney on my map.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie 13 10 314T
Aggregate Predictions 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie



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