My final map!

After Obama losing the debate last night, polls should tighten a bit. However, Romney did win by lying all night long. He also did what he has been doing all campaign: he treated issues like darts , throwing them waiting to see which ones will stick and hit the bull's eye.

I imagine this will continue be a long term problem for him.

If Romney ever takes the lead on RCP polling average, for more than a couple days at tops, then Obama is in trouble. However, I don't expect Romney to still, to ever take the lead.

My final map!

After Obama losing the debate last night, polls should tighten a bit. However, Romney did win by lying all night long. He also did what he has been doing all campaign: he treated issues like darts , throwing them waiting to see which ones will stick and hit the bull's eye.

I imagine this will continue be a long term problem for him.

If Romney ever takes the lead on RCP polling average, for more than a couple days at tops, then Obama is in trouble. However, I don't expect Romney to still, to ever take the lead.

The untold narrative: The Obama knock-out punch in the first debate.

The media, both liberal and conservative media, is framing the pre-first debate narrative like this "This is Romney's chance to change the game" While, though I think it is unlikely Romney changes the game to the point where he can win, I admit, this is possible.

But no one is talking about the other possibility: Obama makes a knock-out punch.Chuck Todd said today that Obama is not planning on simply playing this debate safe. Apparently their team thinks "Romney is their own worst enemy" and Obama is going to try to get under Romney's skin. What if Obama is going for a knock-out punch? I am wondering if the question on the Obama team is not "can we win?" but "How much can we win by?"

What no one seems to talk about, and is possible, is that Obama could be the one who gets the game change moment out of this debate, not Romney. I know the political climate is not the same as it was in 1980. Obama can not win by the same kind of landslide that Reagan won by. However, It is possible for Obama to win by a wider margin than he did in 2008, and thus, end up with a mandate. It is entirely possible that the Obama team has such a strategy. They may not, at this point, be asking themselves "Can we win" but rather "How much can we win by?"

It is possible that Republicans, who already don't like Romney, become so despondent , they don't come out and vote. This was less likely in 2008. While Palin was an absolute mess, and probably helped to contribute to McCains total loss, she also was *beloved* by the Republican base. Palin at least ensure Republicans would come out and vote. Though conservatives like Paul Ryan, I don't think they like him enough to make them come out and vote for a Romney who is losing for 8 points.

So this map reflects this possibility. I don't think this is very likely. However, you will be hearing and seeing all week, up until the debate, about Romney's possible "game changing moment". This is my response to it. This is Obama's game changing moment and it's map. This, I want to stress, is still very unlikely, however, ironically, I believe it is more likely than a "Romney game changing moment"

None of my actual states have flipped. However, the toss-up states of changed. Ohio, for instance is now in the Obama category, instead of in the toss-up. The closest state should either be FL or SC (or even possibly CO or NH)(depending upon how much Obama actually wins by)

This election is pretty much going as I predicated it would go 6 months ago (as far as the margin in which Obama is winning).

My guess was that if Romney won the nomination, Obama would win the election by somewhere between the number of 2 to three points.

If one of the other nutty Republicans got the nomination, Obama would win between somewhere between 5 to 20 points, depending on the candidate. A Bachmann, for example, would probably lose by 20 points. A Gingrich would lose by maybe 5.

I expect to see Obama's Gallup poll continue to go down in the next couple days. It may even tie with Romney. Then, when the poll catches up (it is a seven day tracking poll) it should shoot back up again. Obama I guess is winning by roughly 2 to 4 points. I expect this will be about the margin in wins the election.

Florida is the closest state, and could go either way.

I really think that Romney is done for. Though this is still a close election, I really am starting to sense that Romney has a ceiling that he can't get beyond. I believe his convention bounce will be very telling in these regards. Will he be able to break 49% Even during his convention bounce? If not, I believe this will be telling.

The Conservatives have managed to isolate too many groups: latinos, gays, women, african americans, youth, etc. There simply are enough... well, I have to be careful how I say this.... but the best way to say it is, there aren't enough white men without post graduate degree's who tend to avoid heavily diverse areas and ideas left to get them above 50%.

And this is presents a major long term problem for the Republican party as a whole. The Republican party continues to move further and further to the right, year after year, while simultaneously isolating voting blocks they need to win elections. In addition, the voting blocks the Republicans isolate are growing voting blocks, while the voting blocks the Republicans have locked, losing ground.

If I were a Republican, I would be very concerned for the long term future of my party.

Perhaps because of this we might actually get to see a third party some day in the near future.

This website really needs to be redesigned. :)

This map is not how I actually believe the election will turn out. But it is a map that is demonstrating how stupid Mitt Romney's choice for VP is. Since Romney has basically thrown away Florida, Obama could end up losing Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin and Colorado (all states he is slightly favored to win) and *still" win the election.

Romney's pick for VP demonstrates that Republicans still have not learned their lesson. It also demonstrates how their ideology blinds them to reality. Romney was already headed for a likely lose, but his pick for Paul Ryan is probably the final nail in the coffin. Democrats and Independent minded individuals warned of the disastrous consequences of picking Sarah Palin as VP, and they were right. Paul Ryan is not as bad of a choice as Palin, of course. Ryan is charismatic and intelligent, and, he is reactively likable. He is also a dream candidate for the very few conservative intellectuals left. But this isn't what the election is coming down to. Independents and the elderly are not going to like Paul Ryan. For every vote Romney gets from an enthused conservative, he will lose two.

Romney's only chance to win this election was to sit and wait for something bad to happen. He would have been far better off picking a safe canddiate, that would comfort the independet voter in the event that the economy does take a nose dive between now and November. I believe that Romney's choice for a VP is so bad, in fact, that even if the economy does drop again, he will still probably lose. Romney more than likely just kissed Florida goodbye. No Florida, no winning the election. He also is down in Ohio and Virginia.

But what do you expect from a party that is so ideloogical that they refuse to assess reality, and continue to fall back on their theories no matter how often they are disproven?

Obama

vs.

Romney

If it's Gingrich, Obama should beat him pretty well like this.

If it's Romney, should be close, and I would give Romney the edge.

Way too early to predict... This would be a map of Obama's best chance against Romney.

Overall. Obama vs. Romney =50/50 chance

Obama vs. Huntsman (never gonna even happen) = Huntsman wins

*maybe* Gingrich could win on a *long* shot

Obama versus any of the other mentally challenged candidates, Obama wins (unless something absolutely crazy happens, basically a really really really long shot)