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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-04 Version:30

Prediction Map
palandio Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
palandio Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem253
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos94
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-2-1-27272332-27
Rep+2+1+27000222179+27
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Could the first debate have been the game-changer? Maybe yes, but I still see Obama favored.
MI, MN and PA from Lean DEM to Strong DEM, as campaigns have pulled out.
WI from Toss-up to Lean, I'm reluctant to move it to Strong DEM.
NV stays Lean DEM, both campaigns are still campaigning there as is also has a very central role in electoral math.
OH stays Toss-up, even if the polls indicate Lean DEM.
FL from REP to DEM.
AZ, IN and MO stay Lean REP for the moment, could become Strong.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie 34 1 47T
Aggregate Predictions 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie



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