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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-05 Version:81

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem263
 
Rep248
 
Ind27
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem237
 
Rep205
 
Ind0
 
Tos96
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-6-1-96232263-96
Rep+4+1+69000222179+69
Ind+20+27000000+27


Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election.
Obama-D is favored to win NM-5,OR-7,MI-16,MN-10,PA-20,WI-10,NH-4,and NV-6= 78ev + 179ev(Base States)= 257ev.

Romney-R is favored to win SC-9,IN-11,AZ-11,MO-10,and NC-15= 56ev + 150ev(Base States)= 206ev.

The Tossup States are FL-29,VA-13,OH-18,CO-9,and IA-6.

Romney-R must win FL-29,VA-13,OH-18 plus either CO-9 or IA-6 to win.
Obama-D guide to victory is IA-6 and CO-9=272ev(Obama-D does not need to worry about winning FL-29,VA-13,and OH-18). Obama-D will end up narrowly winning NV-6,NH-4,WI-10,and PA-20.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-05 @ 16:23:04 prediction Map
2012 US Senate Election.
Republicans are favored to win
TX(Cruz-R)42R
NE(Fischer-R)43R
ND(Berg-R)44R
AZ(Flake-R)45R
MT(Rehberg-R)46R
NV(Heller-R)47R
IN(Mourdock-R)48R
Democrats are favored to win
WV(Manchin-D)38D
WA(Cantwell-D)39D
ME(King-I/D)40D
HI(Hirono-D)41D
MI(Stabenow-D)42D
NJ(Menendez-D)43D
NM(Heinrich-D)44D
PA(Casey-D)45D
OH(Brown-D)46D
FL(Nelson-D)47D
The Tossup Battleground States are
MA(Warren-D vs Brown-R)
CT(Murphy-D vs McMahon-R)
WI(Baldwin-D vs Thompson-R)
VA(Kaine-D vs Allen-R)
MO(McCaskill-D vs Akin-R)

Due to Obama-D coattails- Democrats will end up winning MA(Warren-D) and CT(Murphy-D)
In WI- Baldwin-D has the strong GOTV organization than Thompson-R.

The extreme ideology and gaffes of VA(Allen-R) and MO(Akin-R) will help Democrats narrowly win those states.

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-05 @ 16:40:57 prediction Map
I think (and hope) you're right about Allen in VA, but it's hard to believe that McCaskill can survive in MO, even against Akin.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-05 @ 17:20:16 prediction Map
Looking at the US Senate.
Democrats have a strong lead in WV(Manchin-D),HI(Hirino-D),WA(Cantwell-D),MI(Stabenow-D),NJ(Menendez-D)and NM(Heinrich-D)=43D
Democrats are favored to win PA(Casey-D),OH(Brown-D),and FL(Nelson-D)= 46D
King(I-ME)is likely to caucus with the Democrats- He is more liberal than Lieberman. 47D
Democrats in MA(Warren-D) and CT(Murphy-D)are going to benifit from Obama-D coattails. Obama-D will win MA and CT by at least a 15 percent margin. 49D.
Democrats end up winning in WI(Baldwin-D has the strong GOTV organization along with the fact voters have buyers remorse in supporting Teabagger Johnson-R over Feingold-D in 2010. 50D

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-05 @ 17:25:05 prediction Map
The VP Debates are more important than the 3 Presidential Debates- because voters need to find out if Paul Ryan-R is ready to President on day one- suppose something happens to Mitt.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-10-05 @ 18:28:35 prediction Map
gettingclose to my map and i think Ohio narrowly stays with Obama but not COlorado...


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 Senate /34 /34 /68 % pie
P 2014 Senate 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 97 16 42T
P 2014 Governor 28/36 16/36 44/72 61.1% pie 1 325 171T
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 145/161 105/161 250/322 77.6% pie



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