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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-06 Version:82

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem275
 
Rep263
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem237
 
Rep205
 
Ind0
 
Tos96
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-6-1-84232275-84
Rep+6+1+84000222179+84
Ind0000000000


Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election.
Obama-D and Romney-R both have an electoral vote base of 191ev.
Obama-D wins the states Kerry-D won in 2004 by at least a 5 percent margin(ME-4,CT-7,WA-12,and NJ-14)plus (OR-7 and NM-5)= 191ev
Romney-R wins the McCain States(AZ-11 and MO-10) plus (IN-11)= 191ev.
The Lean Obama-D states are MI-16,MN-10,PA-20,and WI-10=56ev(247ev)
The Lean Romney-R states are NC-15,FL-29,and VA-13=57ev(248ev)
The Tossup States are OH-18,CO-9,IA-6,NV-6,and NH-4.
Both candidates need to win OH-18 plus either CO-9,IA-6,NV-6 or NH-4 or they need to win all 4(CO-9,IA-6,NV-6,and NH-4).
Obama-D is more likely to win OH-18(265ev)
Obama-D is likely to win NH-4(269ev)
Romney-R is likely to win CO-9(257ev)
To avoid a Romney-R/Biden-D administration- Obama-D needs to win IA-6 or NV-6.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-06 @ 12:26:49 prediction Map
2012 US Senate Election.
Democrats are strongly favored to win
ME(King-I)and VT(Sanders-I)-Independents likely to caucus with the Democrats. 32D
RI(Whitehouse-D)33D
NY(Gillibrand-D)34D
DE(Carper-D)35D
MD(Cardin-D)36D
WV(Manchin-D)37D
MN(Klobuchar-D)38D
CA(Feinstein-D)39D
Democrats are favored to win
HI(Hirino-D)40D
WA(Cantwell-D)41D
MI(Stabenow-D)42D
NJ(Menendez-D)43D
NM(Heinrich-D)44D
PA(Casey-D)45D
OH(Brown-D)46D
FL(Nelson-D)47D
Republicans are strongly favored to win
WY(Barrasso-R)38R
MS(Wicker-R)39R
TN(Corker-R)40R
UT(Hatch-R)41R
TX(Cruz-R)42R
NE(Fischer-R)43R
Republicans are favored to win
ND(Berg-R)44R
AZ(Flake-R)45R
The Tossup states are MA,CT,WI,NV,VA,MO,IN,and MT.
MA(Brown-R vs Warren-D) is likely to go Democratic due to Obama-D coattails. 48D
MT(Tester-D vs Rehberg-R) is likely to go Republican due to Romney-R coattails. 46R
Democrats win WI(momentum is on Baldwin-D side and she has a stronger GOTV operation than Thompson-R)49D
Democrats also win VA(Kaine-D narrowly defeats Macaca-R)50D and MO(McCaskill-D defeats Legitimate-R). 51D

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-06 @ 14:21:22 prediction Map
Likely 2012 Presidential Election map.
Obama-D wins the Gore/Kerry States
MI-16,OR-7,NM-5,WI-10,PA-20,MN-10,NH-4,and IA-6= 257ev
Romney-R wins the Dole/McCain States
(AR-6,LA-8,KY-8,TN-11,WV-5,AZ-11,GA-16,MT-3,MO-10,NC-15,IN-11,VA-13,and CO-9= 228ev.
Looking at FL-29,OH-18,and NV-6.
Obama-D is likely to win NV-6(263ev)
Romney-R is likely to win FL-29(257ev)
OH-18 is going to be the state that determines the winner.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-06 @ 14:43:04 prediction Map
Looking at States west of the Mississippi River.
Obama-D wins NM-5,NV-6,WA-12,OR-7,CA-55,and HI-4= 89ev
Romney-R wins ND-3,SD-3,NE-5,KS-6,OK-7,TX-38,MT-3,ID-4,WY-3,UT-6,CO-9,AZ-11,and AK-3= 101ev.
Looking at states east of the Mississippi River.
Obama-D is strongly favored to win ME-4,VT-3,MA-11,RI-4,CT-7,NY-29,NJ-14,DE-3,MD-10,DC-3,and IL-20= 108ev(197ev)
Romney-R is strongly favored to win SC-9,GA-16,AL-9,MS-6,LA-8,AR-6,TN-11,KY-8,IN-11,and WV-5= 89ev(190ev)
The Lean Obama-D states east of Mississippi River is MN-10,WI-10,MI-16,and PA-20= 56ev(253ev)
The Lean Romney-R states west of Mississippi River is MO-10,VA-13,NC-15,and FL-29= 67ev(257ev)

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-07 @ 01:13:46 prediction Map
2014 US Senate Election
Democratic Seats.
Solid DEM
RI(Reed-D)
MA(Kerry-D)
IL(Durbin-D)
DE(Coons-D)
OR(Merkley-D)
NM(Udall-D)
NH(Shaheen-D)
Likely DEM
NJ(OPEN-Lautenberg-D)Booker-D
MN(Franken-D)
CO(Udall-D)
NC(Hagan-D)
MT(OPEN-Baucus-D)Schweitzer-D
AR(Pryor-D)
Lean DEM
MI(OPEN-Levin-D) Peters-D
IA(OPEN-Harkin-D) Braley-D
VA(Warner-D elected Gov in 2013) Periello-D
LA(Landrieu-D)
Lean REP
SD(Johnson-D) Rounds-R
WV(OPEN-Rockefeller-D) Capito-R
AK(Begich-D) Miller-R
The only Republican held seat up in 2014 Democrats can pick up is ME-Collins but It has too be an open seat (Pingree-D vs Generic-R)
2012.
Democrats are going to lose NE,ND,and MT but pick up MA and ME. For Democrats to have an easier chance of
retaining control of the US Senate in 2014. Democrats need to win CT(Murphy-D),MO(McCaskill-D),IN(Donnelly-D),and AZ(Carmona-D)


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 83/89 64/89 147/178 82.6% pie



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