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Time Plot Posters!
Date of Prediction: 2012-10-06 Version:82
|Prediction Key||Confidence Key|
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
2012 US Presidential Election.
Obama-D and Romney-R both have an electoral vote base of 191ev.
Obama-D wins the states Kerry-D won in 2004 by at least a 5 percent margin(ME-4,CT-7,WA-12,and NJ-14)plus (OR-7 and NM-5)= 191ev
Romney-R wins the McCain States(AZ-11 and MO-10) plus (IN-11)= 191ev.
The Lean Obama-D states are MI-16,MN-10,PA-20,and WI-10=56ev(247ev)
The Lean Romney-R states are NC-15,FL-29,and VA-13=57ev(248ev)
The Tossup States are OH-18,CO-9,IA-6,NV-6,and NH-4.
Both candidates need to win OH-18 plus either CO-9,IA-6,NV-6 or NH-4 or they need to win all 4(CO-9,IA-6,NV-6,and NH-4).
Obama-D is more likely to win OH-18(265ev)
Obama-D is likely to win NH-4(269ev)
Romney-R is likely to win CO-9(257ev)
To avoid a Romney-R/Biden-D administration- Obama-D needs to win IA-6 or NV-6.
| By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-06 @ 12:26:49
| By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-06 @ 14:21:22
| By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-06 @ 14:43:04
| By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-07 @ 01:13:46
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