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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-07 Version:83

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem303
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem257
 
Rep190
 
Ind0
 
Tos91
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-3-1-56262303-56
Rep+3+1+56000222179+56
Ind0000000000


Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election.
Obama-D wins by margin 20 percent or greater in DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,NY-29,MA-11,MD-10,and RI-4=64ev
Obama-D wins by a 15-20 percent margin in CA-55,IL-20,DE-3,WA-12,and CT-7=97ev(161ev)
Obama-D wins by a 10-15 percent margin in ME-4,NJ-14,MI-16,NM-5,and OR-7=46ev(207ev)
Obama-D wins by a 5-10 percent margin in MN-10,PA-20,WI-10,NH-4,and NV-6=50ev(257ev)
Obama-D wins by a 0-5 percent margin in IA-6,OH-18,VA-13,CO-9,and FL-29.
Based on the margin of error.
Romney-R is likely to win FL-29,VA-13,and CO-9 along with NC-15,IN-11 and the McCain States. (257ev)


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-07 @ 10:42:33 prediction Map
2012 US Presidential Election.
Obama-D guide to victory is winning PA-20,WI-10,OH-18,and VA-13. These are must win states for Obama-D
Obama-D is likely to win MI-16,NM-5,OR-7,and MN-10.
Replace OH-18 and VA-13 with NH-4,NV-6,IA-6,and CO-9- Obama-D still wins.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-07 @ 11:35:50 prediction Map
2012 US Senate Election.
Competitive US Senate Races.
Democrats win
HI(Hirino-D)-The main reason why the race is on the competitive race is because of Lingle-R without Lingle-R HI moves to the Solid DEM collumn. 41D
MI(Stabenow-D)42D
NJ(Menendez-D)43D
PA(Casey-D)44D
NM(Heinrich-D)45D
OH(Brown-D)46D
FL(Nelson-D)47D
VA(Kaine-D)48D
OH,FL,and VA are Statistical Tie states at the Presidential Level. Brown(OH),Nelson(FL) and Kaine(VA) are going to outperform Obama-D numbers in their home state by a 5 percent margin.
WI(Baldwin-D)49D Close Race, But Baldwin-D wins due to Obama-D coattails. Baldwin-D is stronger than expected candidate, while Thompson-R is more conservative than he is perceived to be.
MA(Warren-D)50D Close Race, Warren-D wins due to Obama-D coattails. Brown-R is no longer the Moderate he is portraying to be.
MO(McCaskill-D)51D Close Race-It is a red state but Akin-R is a gift to the DSCC.
Tossup No Clear Favorite.
CT(Murphy-D vs McMahon-R) A Lieberman-D endorsement could be the key factor in the race.
IN(Donnelly-D vs Mourdock-R) A lack of endorsement from Lugar will be the key factor in the race.
Republicans win
NV(Heller-R)
MT(Rehberg-R)
AZ(Flake-R)
ND(Berg-R)
NE(Fischer-R)
TX(Cruz-R)

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-07 @ 13:57:30 prediction Map
2012 is an year of women.
Incumbents seeking re-election.
CA-Feinstein-D(elected during the 1992 Special Election to fill out the remaining term of Pete Wilson-R who was then elected Governor of CA. Narrowly won re-election to a full 6 year term in 1994 against Arrianna Huffington's ex husband. Re-elected in 2000 and 2006 by a landslide margin. Feinstein-D will win her upcoming and her final US Senate Race by a landslide margin. Look for one of the Sanchez sisters to suceed DiFi.
MI(Stabenow-D)-narrowly elected in 2000 due to Gore coattails,re-elected by a double digit margin in 2006. Favored to win re-election again by a double digit margin.
MN(Klobuchar-D)-elected in 2006 by a landslide margin. Favored to win re-election in 2012 by a landslide margin.
MO(McCaskill-D)-narrowly won in 2006 due to the DEM wave,-narrowly wins again in 2012 due to Akin-R.
NY(Gillibrand-D)-appointed to replace Hillary in 2009- won the 2010 Special Election by a landslide margin. Favored to win a full 6 year term in 2012 by a landslide margin.
WA(Cantwell-D)-narrowly elected in 2000 due to Gore coattails. Won re-election in 2006 by a double digit margin. Favored to win re-election again by a double digit margin.
Incumbents retiring.
ME(Snowe-R)and TX(Hutchison-R)
Challengers likely to win.
NE(Fischer-R)-favored to defeat Kerrey-D by a double digit margin. Fischer-R will be more rightwing than the current Female Republican Senators- Murkowski-AK and Ayotte-NH.
HI(Hirono-D)-favored to defeat Lingle-R by a double digit margin.
WI(Baldwin-D)-favored to defeat Thompson-R by a narrow margin. +1
MA(Warren-D)- favored to defeat Brown-R by a narrow margin. +2
CT(McMahon-R)- This will be the biggest surprise in 2012. McMahon-R narrowly wins. +3
NV(Berkley-D)- Second big suprise in 2012. Berkley-D narrowly wins thanks to Obama,Reid,and Bill Clinton. +4
Female US Senate Candidates that are going to lose.
ND(Heitkamp-D)-Strong candidate for the Democrats. Berg-R is a weak Republican candidate-but ND is a Strong Romney-R state.
NM(Wilson-R)-NM is a strong Blue State at the Presidential Level. Heinrich-D is a strong candidate.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-07 @ 14:40:30 prediction Map
2012 is going to be an year-we see more Hispanics in the US Senate.
Cruz(R-TX)will join Menendez(D-NJ) and Rubio(R-FL).
Carmona(D-AZ)has a 50-50 chance of becoming the 4th current Hispanic member of the US Senate.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-07 @ 15:25:43 prediction Map
2012 US Senate Election cycle. The Vulnerable Republican US Senate Incumbents up for re-election in 2012 are more likely to lose than the Vulnerable Democratic US Senate Incumbents up for re-election in 2012.
The Vulnerable Republican US Senate Incumbents up for re-election in 2012.
Brown(R-MA)-Brown-R is an accidential US Senator- The only reason why Brown-R is in the US Senate is because Coakley-D- his 2010 Democratic opponent ran a lousy campaign. MA is a solid Blue State- Brown-R has exposed his true colors- by naming Scalia as his ideal Supreme Court Judge,bringing up Warren-D's native American heritage,etc.
Heller(R-NV)-appointed to the US Senate in 2011 to replace scandal plagued Republican US Senator John Ensign. NV is a purplish blue state and Berkley-D is a mediocre Democratic challenger. Hispanic voter turnout will be key in this race.
Vulnerable Democratic Incumbent US Senators up for re-election in 2012.
Tester(D-MT)-Tester-D is vulnerable because he is facing a top tier GOP challenger. Rehberg-R. Rehberg-R and Racicot-R are the only Republicans that could defeat Tester-D. Tester-D defeats Rick Hill-R,Judy Martz-R and the other second tier MT Republicans.
MT Race is a tossup because Tester-D is a Moderate and Rehberg-R is a rightwing Conservative. Other the Conrad Burns, MT has been a blue state at the US Senate Level.
Baucus,Melcher,Metcalf,and Mansfield.
McCaskill(D-MO)-A non controversial Republican opponent-would have defeated McCaskill(D-MO). Akin-R is a lose cannon.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-07 @ 23:52:14 prediction Map
2012/2014 US Senate Election.
2014
Democrats lose AK(Begich-D loses to a generic GOP challenger Joe Miller-R), SD(Johnson-D loses to ex Governor Mike Rounds-R), and WV(Rockefeller-D retires and is replaced by Shelly Moore Capito-R).
Democrats hang onto LA(Landrieu-D defeats a generic GOP challenger Bill Cassidy-R), NC(Hagan-D defeats a generic GOP challenger Renee Ellmers-R), IA(Harkin-D retires and is succeeded by Bruce Braley-D who defeats Tom Latham-R), MN(Franken-D defeats Pawlenty or Paulsen-R), and MI(Levin-D retires and is replaced by Gary Peters-D who defeats Candice Miller-R).
Republicans hang onto all their seats. ME(Collins-R seeks re-election), KY(McConnell-R). -3D/+3R
For Democrats to remain in the majority in the US Senate until 2016. Democrats need to pick up MA(Warren-D),IN(Donnelly-D) and either AZ(Carmona-D) or NV(Berkley-D), Lose NE(Fischer-R),ND(Berg-R),and MT(Rehberg-R), Hold onto CT(Murphy-D),MO(McCaskill-D),WI(Baldwin-D),VA(Kaine-D),OH(Brown-D),and FL(Nelson-D). King(I-ME) caucuses with the Democrats and Obama-D wins re-election.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 83/89 64/89 147/178 82.6% pie



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