Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-07 Version:15

Prediction Map
HarryHayfield Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
HarryHayfield Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	277
Rep	259
Ind	2

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	264
Rep	212
Ind	0
Tos	62

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-5	-3	-82	24	0	277	-82
Rep	+5	+1	+80	0	0	0	22	2	179	+80
Ind	0	+2	+2	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2

Analysis

Romney's win at the debate has seen an average 1% swing to Romney since the debate. This means that Romney is on the cusp of a win, another barnstormer of a Romney win and a Ryan win at the VP debate and I have to admit that Romney will have it in the bag.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

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User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	18	1	401	T
2012 Senate	22/33	6/33	28/66	42.4%	1	267	334	T
2012 Governor	8/11	2/11	10/22	45.5%	1	30	220
2012 Rep Primary	41/52	12/52	53/104	51.0%	48	-	64	T
2011 Governor	2/4	0/4	2/8	25.0%	1	33	100	T
2010 Senate	27/37	13/37	40/74	54.1%	3	2	391	T
2010 Governor	28/37	14/37	42/74	56.8%	3	2	230	T
2009 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	1	41	T
2008 President	52/56	30/56	82/112	73.2%	22	0	442	T
2008 Senate	30/33	11/33	41/66	62.1%	2	8	334	T
2008 Governor	11/11	5/11	16/22	72.7%	1	47	152	T
2008 Dem Primary	27/52	8/52	35/104	33.7%	33	-	127	T
2008 Rep Primary	41/49	15/49	56/98	57.1%	32	-	21	T
2007 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	1	65	155	T
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	12/33	43/66	65.2%	7	1	328	T
2006 Governor	25/36	7/36	32/72	44.4%	3	26	301	T
2004 President	53/56	36/56	89/112	79.5%	16	1	283	T
Aggregate Predictions	455/561	212/561	667/1122	59.4%