Romney's win at the debate has seen an average 1% swing to Romney since the debate. This means that Romney is on the cusp of a win, another barnstormer of a Romney win and a Ryan win at the VP debate and I have to admit that Romney will have it in the bag.

Still 272 plays 266 in favour of the President, my reckoning is that Romney needs a minimum 2% lead consistently for the next fortnight to have a chance of winning, any day he does not get a 2% national lead is one day closer to Obama being re-elected

The Real Clear Politics polls (on a three day moving average) say Romney ahead by 1.2% (indicating a 4.2% swing) which is just enough to get Romney over the 270

Romney's win at the debate has seen an average 1% swing to Romney since the debate. This means that Romney is on the cusp of a win, another barnstormer of a Romney win and a Ryan win at the VP debate and I have to admit that Romney will have it in the bag.

Overall Obama wins again (losing FL, IN and NC to Romney) however I think there is a chance that the two electoral college votes in Maine that are awarded by congressional districts have a chance to go to Paul as a write in or Johnson (given the clear anger there was in the state at the Republican primary and there was a report that Paul's campaign is trying to get those two to flip)

The trend is clearly towards Obama

First of my weekly updates using a three day moving average of the Real Clear Politics national polls (which suggest an Obama lead of 1.2%, a 2.4% swing to Romney since 2008) and then putting that swing into President Forever. I will update this map every Sunday from now until the week before the election then every day from October 28th until November 5th

IA and WI flip to GOP (WI is a tossup dependent on what happens in the recall)

That's based on a 4.5% swing from Dem to GOP. States that have a forecast majority of less than 4.5% are deemed tossup, between 4.5% and 9.0% are deemed lean, anything over 9.0% is deemed strong.

Reflecting the slight recovery in Obama's numbers

No real change, just leaning the Dem states (instead of strong)

No real change, just making all the GOP states at the moment strong and all the flips lean GOP.

It seems that the latest RCP average says Obama by 2% (and the map looks very much like my guess)

Working on the assumption of just Romney vs Obama, I'm of the opinion that MN and NM have the potential to flip, but am wondering if it is Romney for the GOP should I start factoring in a Paul Independent ticket as well?

Taking the advice of comments I have flipped Nevada and put Minnesota back into the Democrat column. Based on Iowa caucuses (which saw turnout increase by 4,000) I am tempted to keep Iowa in the Republican column (but any more advice on the subject will be greatly appreciated)

Just a very cursory projection asking the question "Which states have the potential to flip?"