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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-08 Version:23

Prediction Map
darthpi Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
darthpi Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem0
 
Rep0
 
Ind538
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem0
 
Rep0
 
Ind508
 
Tos30
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-29-3-359000-359
Rep000-22-2-179000-179
Ind+51+5+538000000+538


Analysis

To quote Nate Silver: The. Polls. Have. Stopped. Making. Any. Sense.

Gallup: Obama +5 (Marginally BETTER for President Obama than pre-debate numbers(+4), Obama approval rating at 51)
Rasmussen: Tied (Marginally better for Romney than pre-debate numbers, but down from peak yesterday, Obama approval at 51)
Pew: Romney +4 (Dramatic move toward Romney)

Not to even get into how all-over-the-place the state polling is.

As I predicted in the comments section on the last map: the polls are very volatile.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: darthpi (D-PA) 2012-10-08 @ 16:59:25 prediction Map
Based on the day-to-day movement in the tracking polls, as well as some comments on the PPP twitter feed, Thursday and Friday night's polling must have been absolutely brutal for President Obama. Then again, considering the news reports on Thursday night made it seem that President Obama had done worse in the debate than when President Ford had said there were no Soviets in Eastern Europe in the 1976 debate, I suppose that shouldn't be much of a surprise.

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-08 @ 23:11:01 prediction Map
The AP announced today that they won't be doing exit polls in 18 states (and DC) to "concentrate on the battleground states".

The AP won't poll these 2008 McCain states:

AK, AR, GA, ID, KY, LA, NE, ND, OK, SC, TN, TX, WV, WY -- fifteen red states totaling 135 EVs.

The AP won't poll these 2008 Obama states:

DE, HI, RI, (plus DC) -- three blue states (plus DC) totaling 14 EVs.

The LEAST close 18 states (plus DC) in 2008 were:

DC, HI, VT, RI, NY, MA, MD, IL, DE, CA, CT, ME -- eleven blue states (plus DC) totaling 153 EVs

WY, OK, UT, ID, AL, AK, LA -- seven red states totaling 40 EVs

The AP will then present the "opinions of the exit polls of battleground (sic) states" on issues near and dear to the Elite Media's heart and proclaim them "American values".

You might want to keep this in mind the next time you hear about conservative complaints about "skewed polls".

Last Edit: 2012-10-08 @ 23:19:51

 By: dgentile (G-NY) 2012-10-09 @ 06:54:43 prediction Map
There will still be exit polls. All news outlets have always gotten the results from the same source. I researched and found this is Edison.

http://www.edisonresearch.com/election-research-services/exit-polling-services

From Wikipedia:
In the United States, the National Election Pool (NEP) consists of ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, FOX News, and NBC conduct a joint election exit poll. Since 2004 this exit poll has been conducted for the NEP by Edison Media Research.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T
Aggregate Predictions 291/323 206/323 497/646 76.9% pie


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