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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-08 Version:3

Prediction Map
cwech MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
cwech MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem303
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem257
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos75
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-3-1-56262303-56
Rep+3+1+56000222179+56
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Augh!

While I maintained skepticism about debates' ability to change underlying election dynamics well into the weekend. Significant poll movement indicates this is now very much a race again, I've downgraded Obama to 303 only actually shifting Florida, but several states are now in play that seemed to be on the verge of not being in play a week ago.

I think Romney went into the debate with the strategy of forcing Obama to challenge everything and turn it into a debate about alternate realities, while Obama went into the debate with the strategy of not debating. The result is that Romney's (largely false) lines went completely unchallenged. What a pathetic performance.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


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Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 31/36 18/36 49/72 68.1% pie 3 6 231T
P 2012 President 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie 4 14 47T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 17/33 48/66 72.7% pie 6 8 144T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 12 1 100T
P 2010 Governor 35/37 22/37 57/74 77.0% pie 3 0 91T
P 2008 President 54/56 38/56 92/112 82.1% pie 13 1 178T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 18/33 51/66 77.3% pie 7 1 96T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 2 1 86T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 20/33 53/66 80.3% pie 25 3 88T
P 2006 Governor 34/36 11/36 45/72 62.5% pie 3 15 207T
Aggregate Predictions 351/368 220/368 571/736 77.6% pie


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