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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-08 Version:3
|Prediction Key||Confidence Key|
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
While I maintained skepticism about debates' ability to change underlying election dynamics well into the weekend. Significant poll movement indicates this is now very much a race again, I've downgraded Obama to 303 only actually shifting Florida, but several states are now in play that seemed to be on the verge of not being in play a week ago.
I think Romney went into the debate with the strategy of forcing Obama to challenge everything and turn it into a debate about alternate realities, while Obama went into the debate with the strategy of not debating. The result is that Romney's (largely false) lines went completely unchallenged. What a pathetic performance.
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