Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-08 Version:3

Prediction Map
cwech Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
cwech Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	303
Rep	235
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	257
Rep	206
Ind	0
Tos	75

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-1	-56	26	2	303	-56
Rep	+3	+1	+56	0	0	0	22	2	179	+56
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Augh!

While I maintained skepticism about debates' ability to change underlying election dynamics well into the weekend. Significant poll movement indicates this is now very much a race again, I've downgraded Obama to 303 only actually shifting Florida, but several states are now in play that seemed to be on the verge of not being in play a week ago.

I think Romney went into the debate with the strategy of forcing Obama to challenge everything and turn it into a debate about alternate realities, while Obama went into the debate with the strategy of not debating. The result is that Romney's (largely false) lines went completely unchallenged. What a pathetic performance.

Prediction History
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User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	4	14	47	T
2012 Senate	31/33	17/33	48/66	72.7%	6	8	144	T
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	12	1	100	T
2010 Governor	35/37	22/37	57/74	77.0%	3	0	91	T
2008 President	54/56	38/56	92/112	82.1%	13	1	178	T
2008 Senate	33/33	18/33	51/66	77.3%	7	1	96	T
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	1	86	T
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	20/33	53/66	80.3%	25	3	88	T
2006 Governor	34/36	11/36	45/72	62.5%	3	15	207	T
Aggregate Predictions	320/332	202/332	522/664	78.6%