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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-08 Version:4

Prediction Map
Snigglie MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Snigglie MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem149
 
Rep389
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem149
 
Rep360
 
Ind0
 
Tos29
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-18-3-210110149-210
Rep+18+3+210000222179+210
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Just for fun, here's what a 10% swing from Obama to Romney based on the 2008 results. Not very likeli but fun to look at. I'll do a 5% swing to Obama next just to be fair.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Snigglie (R-AL) 2012-10-09 @ 15:24:34 prediction Map
NJ should have been a tossup in the scenario, but it doesn't really matter.

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-09 @ 23:25:52 prediction Map
Well, if this happens we'll be back to those fabulous days of full GOP control in D.C. -- like 2003-06. If it happens, I hope (and doubt) the Repubs will do better than last time.

 By: ryer (R-VA) 2012-10-10 @ 02:16:47 prediction Map
If the result were like this, I'd consider throwing Connecticut in the Romney column. Obama's polling there has been sporadic and underwhelming.

 By: Snigglie (R-AL) 2012-10-10 @ 13:59:50 prediction Map
I'm basing this entirely on a 10% swing from the 2008 election, and since Obama won Connecticut by more than 20%, he still wins in this scenario. I don't expect this to happen, though. This is what I would call a 'space alien' scenario. Basically, if someone offers definitive proof that President Obama is a space alien, this result will likely occur. I'll do my 'Romney is a space alien' scenario next.

Note: The reference to space aliens is just a joke.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 45/56 25/56 70/112 62.5% pie 7 20 730T
P 2012 Senate 25/33 12/33 37/66 56.1% pie 1 34 291T
Aggregate Predictions 70/89 37/89 107/178 60.1% pie


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