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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-08 Version:7

Prediction Map
James Lay MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
James Lay MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem303
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem263
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos69
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-3-1-56262303-56
Rep+3+1+56000222179+56
Ind0000000000


Analysis

The first debate saw a surprising strong performance by Mitt Romney, so he's now near to Obama in national polls

Willard need to win al the four toss-up states (Florida-Ohio-Virginia-Colorado) to unseat Obama and the president is still performing quite good in the decisive four swing states, especially in Ohio and it's pratically impossible for Romney to win the White House without Ohio


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 30/36 18/36 48/72 66.7% pie 2 420 240T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 13/36 43/72 59.7% pie 2 420 192T
P 2012 President 54/56 40/56 94/112 83.9% pie 9 19 367T
P 2012 Senate 29/33 19/33 48/66 72.7% pie 3 28 144T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 4 11 51T
P 2010 Senate 32/37 16/37 48/74 64.9% pie 1 11 265T
P 2010 Governor 33/37 18/37 51/74 68.9% pie 1 11 158T
Aggregate Predictions 218/246 131/246 349/492 70.9% pie


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