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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-09 Version:3

Prediction Map
haletow Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
haletow Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem348
 
Rep190
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep133
 
Ind0
 
Tos73
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+20+15-20-26273333-11
Rep+20+26-20-15202164+11
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
6549943
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

The debate not only gave Romney momentum, but has decreased other electoral college maps for Romney. A Pew Poll has Romney leading Obama, 49-45%, but stlll losing the electoral college by a wide margin. But, even more ominous for Romney is the Gallup poll. It is usually accurate in October for predicting the presidential race. Obama leads Romney, 50%-46% among registered voters, but tied among likely voters. It has been wrong 3 times. The results have been wrong only 3 times: 04, 1976, and 1948. Also, each time an incumbent president goes to the people, the crowds are always large, and the incumbent wins. In 1980, and 1992, neither Carter or Bush went to the people. They both had controlled events. Obama's biggest asset is himself. People love seeing their president in person, and, are swayed in voting for him.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 53/56 12/56 65/112 58.0% pie 3 28 741T
P 2012 Senate 27/33 1/33 28/66 42.4% pie 1 35 334T
P 2012 Governor 8/11 1/11 9/22 40.9% pie 1 35 221T
P 2010 Senate 29/37 6/37 35/74 47.3% pie 2 98 429T
P 2010 Governor 27/37 2/37 29/74 39.2% pie 2 98 296T
P 2008 President 52/56 28/56 80/112 71.4% pie 4 41 503T
P 2004 President 51/56 34/56 85/112 75.9% pie 9 1 706T
Aggregate Predictions 247/286 84/286 331/572 57.9% pie


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