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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-09 Version:85

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem281
 
Rep257
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem227
 
Rep190
 
Ind0
 
Tos121
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-5-1-78242281-78
Rep+5+1+78000222179+78
Ind0000000000


Analysis

2012 US Presidential Election.
Solid Obama-D
DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,NY-29,MA-11,RI-4,MD-10,CA-55,DE-3,and IL-20=142ev
Likely Obama-D
WA-12,ME-4,NJ-14,and CT-7=37ev(179ev)
Lean Obama-D
NM-5,OR-7,MN-10,WI-10,MI-16,and PA-20=68ev(247ev)
Slight Lean Obama-D
NH-4,NV-6,and IA-6=16ev(263ev)
Obama-D guide to 270 is winning either VA-13 or OH-18 or both.
Obama-D loses all of the McCain States (AZ-11 and MO-10 in the high single digit margin), IN-11 by a 10 percent margin. NC-15 by a 5 percent margin, and FL-29 and CO-9 will be a statistical tie.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-09 @ 07:15:45 prediction Map
Romney-R will win the McCain States plus IN-11,NC-15,FL-29,and VA-13=248ev.
Romney-R guide to victory is OH-18 and CO-9,OH-18 and IA-6.
Obama-D will hold onto NV-6 and NH-4.

 By: Olawakandi (D-IL) 2012-10-09 @ 17:07:38 prediction Map
A 1916 election map, interesting to see cause Obama, now leads in Oh 51-47%.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-09 @ 18:50:17 prediction Map
FL-29,OH-18,NC-15,VA-13,CO-9,NV-6,and IA-6 are the true Tossup Races.
Obama-D wins all of the Kerry States plus NM-5=251ev
Romney-R wins all of the McCain States plus IN-11=191ev
Obama-D will end up winning NV-6 and IA-6=263ev
Romney-R will end up winning FL-29,NC-15,and CO-9=244ev
OH-18 and VA-13 will determine the winner.
Obama-D needs to win either of those states.
Romney-R has to win both of those states.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-09 @ 20:11:37 prediction Map
2012 US Senate Election.
Solid Democratic
NY(Gillibrand-D)31D
VT(Sanders-I/D)32D
DE(Carper-D)33D
MD(Cardin-D)34D
RI(Whitehouse-D)35D
MN(Klobuchar-D)36D
WV(Manchin-D)37D
CA(Feinstein-D)38D
Likely Democratic
WA(Cantwell-D)39D
MI(Stabenow-D)40D
ME(King-I/D)41D
HI(Hirino-D)42D
NJ(Menendez-D)43D
Lean Democratic
NM(Heinrich-D)44D
PA(Casey-D)45D
FL(Nelson-D)46D
OH(Brown-D)47D
WI(Baldwin-D)48D
VA(Kaine-D)49D
Tossup Democratic
CT(Murphy-D)50D
MO(McCaskill-D)51D
MA(Warren-D)52D
Tossup Republican
IN(Mourdock-R)38R
NV(Heller-R)39R
MT(Rehberg-R)40R
AZ(Flake-R)41R
Lean Republican
ND(Berg-R)42R
Likely Republican
NE(Fischer-R)43R
TX(Cruz-R)44R
Solid Republican
UT(Hatch-R)45R
MS(Wicker-R)46R
TN(Corker-R)47R
WY(Barrasso-R)48R

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-09 @ 21:47:00 prediction Map
Romney-R guide to victory is winning all of the McCain States=180ev plus IN-11,NC-15,FL-29,VA-13,CO-9 and OH-18.
Obama-D will hold onto NM-5,OR-7,MN-10,WI-10,MI-16,and PA-20=247ev
Obama-D narrowly wins NH-4,IA-6,and NV-6=263

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-09 @ 23:20:12 prediction Map
Romney can win just FIVE Bush states that McCain lost and it could all come down to Iowa: IN, OH, VA, NC, FL. That makes it a 266 to 266 tie, then whoever wins Iowa wins.

Just saying.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-10-10 @ 06:58:54 prediction Map
The Obama-Bush States are NH-4(Bush won in 2000,lost in 2004),NM-5(Bust lost in 2000,won in 2004),IA-6(Bush lost in 2000,won in 2004),NV-6,CO-9,IN-11,VA-13,NC-15,OH-18,and FL-29.
NM-5 is going to stay with Team Obama-D 247ev
IN-11 is going to go with Team Romney-R 191ev.
Looking at NH-4,NV-6,IA-6,CO-9,VA-13,NC-15,OH-18,and FL-29.
Lets give Romney-R FL-29 a state he cannot lose in order to win. 220ev, NC-15,VA-13,and CO-9 are the Dole States. 257ev.
Lets give Obama-D OH-18 a state he cannot lose in order to win. 265ev
Obama-D now has to win either IA-6,NV-6,or NH-4.
Another scenario is Obama-D wins VA-13(260ev),NV(266) and IA-6(272ev)
Romney-R wins FL-29,NC-15,OH-18,CO-9,and NH-4(266ev)


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 83/89 64/89 147/178 82.6% pie



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