Comments History
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hideVersion: 40
Mitt Romney has been a fantastic competitor and nationally he has made the election a virtual tie. But President Obama is in a position to be re-elected President, and his reaction to Hurricane Sandy has proven to be the right one!
Early voting clearly benefits the President at this point, and he's almost certain to win the states of Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada. I'm also putting Virginia in his column because Democratic voters have the lead there; the Republicans have the advantage in Colorado at this point but I'm thinking it should favor the President by the end of Election Night.
North Carolina and Florida are difficult states to call, and I'm not quite sure how they'll fall on November 6th. I'm giving the Tar Heel state to Governor Romney, as Republicans are taking counties that they lost in 2008; as for Florida, it's anyone's guess how it will fall at this point. I'm giving it to the President.
Of course we can't be sure how the nation will be colored on Election Night. I could be way off or I could be spot on - we'll have to wait and see!
Good luck, everyone.
My final prediction for Election Night 2012:
Obama/Biden . . . 49%
Romney/Ryan . . . 49%
Other . . . . . . >1%
Version: 39
Yup, it happened. Florida goes back into President Obama's column tonight, as the combination of absentee ballot returns and early voting numbers among Democrats now exceeds the Republicans'! Early voting has President Obama ahead in the Sunshine state!
In North Carolina, Republicans are exceeding their 2008 proportion of the vote so it's a safe bet to assume the state is going to Governor Romney on November 6th.
Both Ohio and Iowa look like Democratic strong-holds at this point in the election (with only a week to go), so I'm confidently placing these two states in Obama's column.
Though the Republican share of the vote in Colorado exceeds that of the Democrats', it doesn't exceed it by much (2 %) - and in 2008 Democratic registration was only 1 percent greater than GOP registration but President Obama won the state by 8-points! I'm giving the state to President Obama, though I know the margin will be smaller this time.
In Nevada, Democrats hold a huge advantage and it doesn't look like the tide is turning in Governor Romney's favor. It goes to Obama.
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/swing-state-early-voting-tally-135626765--politics.html
My prediction for Election Night:
Obama/Biden . . . 49%
Romney/Ryan . . . 50%
Other . . . . . . 1%
However, I'm confident at this point that President Obama will carry more electoral votes on Election Night, thus winning the election.
Hurricane Sandy is making this a strange race!
Version: 38
Hurricane Sandy will probably affect the popular vote outcome, giving Mitt Romney a higher share of the vote throughout the country, even though--I'm now predicting--President Obama will win the Electoral Vote by at least a margin of 20!
My prediction for Election Night:
Obama/Biden . . . 49%
Romney/Ryan . . . 50%
Other . . . . . . 1%
I absolutely agree with President Obama that the safety of voters at this time is more important than getting them to the polls! This is a point Governor Romney clearly agrees with too, because of the advice he's offering to those along the east coast.
Both men are genuinely sensible on these matters.
Version: 37
The AP has President Obama poised to win Ohio by Election Night. Great, great news for the current occupant of the White House! I am providing Governor Romney with tiny victories in the states of Florida and North Carolina, though I'm obviously not too sure what the final outcome will be.
Early voting continues to show an advantage for the President in Ohio and Iowa; Florida is a different matter, though neither camp wants to admit defeat.
My prediction for Election Night:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 48%
Other . . . . . . 1%
It'll be interesting to see how Hurricane Sandy affects the race.
Version: 36
With more states now in the midst of early voting, a clearer picture of the final Election Day results is developing.
Early voting in Colorado, which began on Monday, October 22, shows the number of returned Republican ballots slightly ahead of the Democrats' - 39% to 37% in the vote total so far. I think by Election Day Colorado will pull through for President Obama.
In Florida and in Virginia, early voting and absentee ballot returns have the President where he wants to be if he intends to take those states. More Democratic early voters have cast a ballot in Virginia than have Republicans; and in Florida, Democrats have reduced the margin that separated them from Republicans at this point in the vote tally in 2008.
These two states remain competitive.
As for Ohio, pollsters consistently show that more early voters have selected President Obama than Mitt Romney, and by a double-digit difference! I'm tempted to place Ohio in the "lean Obama" category but will not do that until I'm absolutely confident about it - possibly not until Election Day.
Iowa is almost certainly going to fall in President Obama's column by Election Night, as Democrats have a wide enough lead in the early vote to make it maddeningly difficult for Governor Romney to pull ahead on Election Day, assuming that's what the trend will be.
But this is how I see the race so far.
My prediction for Election Night:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
Also, it's a pretty good bet that the final pre-Election Day Jobs report will affect the final days of voting in November! We shouldn't discount this.
Version: 35
The early vote looks excellent for President Obama, and even though he's doing slightly worse--slightly!--than in 2008, if the trend continues as it is President Obama should go on to be re-elected on November 6th!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/22/early-vote-tightens-in-swing-states/
My prediction for Election Day:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
As an added note, Democratic early voting and absentee ballot returns in the states of Nevada and Florida are already greater than they were at this point in 2008!
As of now, Democrats outnumber Republicans in early voting in the states of Iowa, Nevada, and North Carolina; and according to Survey USA, Suffolk University, and CBS News/Quinnipiac polls more early voters have voted for President Obama in Ohio than for his competitor.
Version: 34
Political analyst Nate Silver gives President Obama a 66% chance of winning the Presidency and rips the Gallup poll that gives Mitt Romney a 7-point lead in a recent column.
He claims - and shows - that Gallup has a history of swinging wildly from week to week which no other pollster does. Since 1996 Gallup has had candidates up or down by 6 points from the actual results just days before the election (including the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections).
In other news, President Obama still has early voter leads in the states of Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada and Colorado - and is now making ground on Mitt Romney's early voter lead in Florida!
My prediction for Election Night:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
Version: 33
Various polls now show President Obama re-gaining momentum in the battleground states!
Great news for the President!
My prediction:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
Version: 32
Very good debate!
My prediction for Election Night:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
Version: 31
President Obama was too nice to Mitt Romney in their first debate. It's becoming abundantly obvious that Mitt Romney doesn't have consistent positions on important society-molding issues; Mitt Romney follows the political winds - which is fine in limited doses - but it does reveal a lack of core convictions and reinforce the view that he's an opportunist only out to score a personal victory!
"This country needs jobs, Mr. President. Jobs." If Mitt Romney had a history of keeping jobs here in America while his corporate friends outsourced them to various parts of the world this statement would actually mean something. If he fought to preserve employment while building businesses, if he was unconventional in his methods he would have an issue to stand on. But the employment of American workers was never a chief concern then . . . only now as a political candidate is it at the top of his list.
Mitt Romney wants to win. Clarity? Conviction? Consistency? No; winning is more important. Winning. Mitt Romney's multiple change of hearts on the abortion issue is just one example of what he really values. Life? Choice? Some restrictions? No restrictions? Nope. You know the answer. (Winning.)
I think Mitt Romney's political fortune will unravel in the coming weeks. His solid endorsement of "Jobs" in the first debate will be greeted with skepticism as issues of inconsistency and a record of layoffs gets hammered into the minds of the American public. Even now moderates and conservatives are questioning who the real Mitt Romney is.
I suppose only God truly knows.
American voters (those with genuine convictions and strong political positions; not necessarily you) don't like to be taken advantage of. I predict the gradual decline of Mitt Romney in the coming weeks.
It's said that winning lifts the spirit while losing builds character.
Well, Mitt Romney could use more character at the moment.
My prediction for Election Night 2012:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
Version: 30
President Obama was too nice to Mitt Romney in their first debate. It's becoming abundantly obvious that Mitt Romney doesn't have consistent positions on important society-molding issues; Mitt Romney follows the political winds - which is fine in limited doses - but it does reveal a lack of core convictions and reinforce the view that he's an opportunist only out to score a personal victory!
"This country needs jobs, Mr. President. Jobs." If Mitt Romney had a history of keeping jobs here in America while his corporate friends outsourced them to various parts of the world this statement would actually mean something. If he fought to preserve employment while building businesses, if he was unconventional in his methods he would have an issue to stand on. But the employment of American workers was never a chief concern then . . . only now as a political candidate is it at the top of his list.
Mitt Romney wants to win. Clarity? Conviction? Consistency? No; winning is more important. Winning. Mitt Romney's multiple change of hearts on the abortion issue is just one example of what he really values. Life? Choice? Some restrictions? No restrictions? Nope. You know the answer. (Winning.)
I think Mitt Romney's political fortune will unravel in the coming weeks. His solid endorsement of "Jobs" in the first debate will be greeted with skepticism as issues of inconsistency and a record of layoffs gets hammered into the minds of the American public. Even now moderates and conservatives are questioning who the real Mitt Romney is.
I suppose only God truly knows.
American voters (those with genuine convictions and strong political positions; not necessarily you) don't like to be taken advantage of. I predict the gradual decline of Mitt Romney in the coming weeks.
It's said that winning lifts the spirit while losing builds character.
Well, Mitt Romney could use more character at the moment.
My prediction for Election Night 2012:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
Version: 29
Mitt Romney hit a triple in the first Presidential debate . . . but we still have one month before the Election. If the Election were held today this would be the result, I believe.
My prediction for Election Night 2012:
Obama/Biden . . . 50%
Romney/Ryan . . . 48%
Other . . . . . . 2%
President Obama still has leads in enough battleground states to carry the day. Ultimately the debates and other events from now until November 6 will determine the final results.
Version: 28
Okay. This is going to be a tight race after all. I moved Arizona back into "lean" territory for Mitt Romney but now have Missouri as "toss-up"--though still falling into Romney's column on Election Night. North Carolina, still a "toss-up", now goes to the Massachusetts Governor.
I think President Obama will take a cleaning rag to his boxing gloves and give Mitt Romney a good pounding in the next debate.
My prediction for Election Night 2012:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
May the best civil servant win!
Version: 27
Unemployment drops to 7.8%--great news for President Obama!
My prediction:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
Version: 26
I didn't see the Presidential debate yesterday on live television but I did see it on Youtube and I have to say I disagree with Mitt Romney on the point that raising taxes will hurt the economy and fail to reduce the deficit. I'm sure he believes it but I don't!
President Obama believes a more balanced approach of raising taxes on the wealthy and spending cuts are what's needed; I agree. I don't see how any alternative solution will work to reduce debt and deficit. Despite the recession, unemployment has been inching down at a maddening slow rate but it's been trending in that direction, but it's going to take some time considering that this financial crisis is a global pandemic affecting just about everything around the world. The best way to avoid another economic catastrophe like the one we were just in is to allow significant government oversight of big banks and financial institutions, as it was this sector that got us in this mess in the first place!
I don't measure the champion of a debate with body posturing and slick words. I measure him by the use of valid facts and honest proposals/solutions.
I understand that Mitt Romney needs to drum up support among Republican voters but his solutions (which include expanding the military) just didn't resonate with me.
My prediction:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
Version: 25
At the moment I'm . . .
Reviewing the latest state polls of Toss-up states and accepting that President Obama will be in the White House beyond January 20, 2013 . . .
Listening to a mind-shattering classic hit by the rock band "Our Lady Peace" . . .
Peeling an orange and wiping juice from my chin with a cheaply-bought Brawny napkin.
My prediction:
Obama/Biden . . . 52%
Romney/Ryan . . . 46%
Other . . . . . . 2%
"When I find out what went on we'll bring it back but it wont be easy. They wont believe how a nanny could drown in a. Starseed! Starseed!" *Tapping foot on the floor*
(Disclaimer: Lyrics may not be accurate.)
Version: 24
A variety of polls out this week now show North Carolina and Florida falling consistently in Obama's column and Mitt Romney's edge in Arizona is now down to 3 points in a Purple strategies poll.
I'm predicting a surprise blow-out for the President On Election Night where the talk the following morning will be how a multitude of things worked together to deny Mitt Romney both a victory and even an anticipated close race!
I could be wrong but I'm taking a chance right now (now the fun begins! I could backtrack later. :p )
My prediction for Election Night:
Obama/Biden . . . 52%
Romney/Ryan . . . 46%
Other . . . . . . 2%
Now Arizona might fall in Mitt Romney's column by the end of Nov. 6 or it might not--but it's going to be close!
Version: 23
Mitt Romney is having a terrible week! I don't hate Mitt Romney but I think he's having a hard time connecting to the majority of the electorate and that's really bruising him right now, even as we approach Election Day!
My prediction:
Obama/Biden . . . 52%
Romney/Ryan . . . 46%
I think President Obama will surprise the pollsters on November 6 and win big! Mitt Romney (I do admit it wont be all his fault) will underperform on Election Night. The passion for Mitt Romney simply isn't there.
Version: 22
Mitt Romney after his Michael Dukakis moment!
My prediction:
Obama/Biden . . . 52%
Romney/Ryan . . . 46%
Other . . . . . . 2%
If President Obama doesn't see an improvement in the polls I will be very surprised. I think there's now a potential for a Reaganesque landslide!
Version: 21
President Obama picking up momentum after last week's DNC!
My prediction:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
Version: 20
Polls now consistently show President Obama and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck in the state of North Carolina. I have the state falling in Obama's column on Election Night.
My prediction:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Tonight's excellent speeches ("performances" if you want to call them that!) at the Democratic National Convention reminded me why I'm a loyal Democrat! Truly loved them!
I expect a generous bounce for President Obama in the coming days.
Version: 19
The Republican National Convention in Tampa was an interesting show with a lot of distractions. Unfortuneately Hurricane Isaac eliminated a day from the festivities and the drama with one of the attendees throwing food at a black camerawoman and calling her an "animal" will be seared into our memories. Yes, it's not fair that all RNC goers should be associated with this but it does highlight one of the nastier attitudes currently brewing in the party.
Still, the Republican Convention did have some warm moments that I did enjoy and do even agree with, such as when Governor Jeb Bush defended his brother and declared that President Obama should take responsibility for his own economic failures. I also found the Clint Eastwood speech hillarious!
But I agree with Liberalrocks and a few others on this forum when I say that I think the mood of the country will still give President Obama the advantage after all the reviews are in. Mitt Romney looked pretty and spoke great things but I just didn't see a Presidential spark even after he was given the stage. An extra day for the convention would have probably made things better, I think.
President Obama will still be slightly ahead of Romney in the coming weeks I believe.
My Prediction for Election Night:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
Version: 18
Two different polls by two different pollsters now have President Obama ahead in Missouri! It's in play!
My prediction:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
I'm getting a strong gut feeling that Paul Ryan's selection will turn off a lot of unwealthy social conservatives and give President Obama a boost on Election night. Mitt Romney's elitist ticket is going to bomb!
(And to add insult to injury he isn't even allowing a lot of big name country conservatives to the Republican Convention to speak . . . I see disenfranchisement in the works!)
Oh, and the state that will make evident the winner in 2012: Florida!
Version: 17
The middle class is shrinking and its net worth is going down! The middle class blames lawmakers, big banks and corporations for its current troubles according to an article released today on Yahoo News.
Obama is favored.
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
Another interesting bit of data: Mitt Romney has a depressingly low favorability of 41%. President Obama enjoys a smile widening 48% favorability, however.
Version: 16
New National polls show President Obama back up ahead of Mitt Romney.
My prediction:
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
This map is identical to Nate Silver's probability of the Electoral Vote map over at Fivethirtyeight. Mitt Romney's bump in the polls after announcing his V.P. selection has been less than stellar and he's currently a skeptic of Mitt Romney's overall chances at winning the Presidency.
Version: 15
The Election according to the latest concensus of polls. President Obama STILL wins and Mitt Romney still loses! Boo-yah!
My prediction:
Obama/Biden 51%
Romney/Ryan 47%
Other 2%
In reality, I expect Romney's surge to sink as it dawns on voters that what they are getting on economic policy is a return to the Bush economic doctrine. Failure. Failure. Failure. No thanks.
Version: 14
Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan is an endorsement of President Bush's market deregulation. Very stupid!
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
Lowering taxes on the rich isn't going to solve our economic crisis nor will allowing banks to do whatever they want be the answer. (Banks did this, by the way, under Bush; look what happened.)
Version: 13
I'm now more convinced that President Obama will be re-elected in November.
Obama/Biden . . . 51%
Romney/Ryan . . . 47%
Other . . . . . . 2%
Version: 12
President Obama 53%
Rick Santorum 44%
Other 3%
Not only are Republicans snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in 2012 -- they're snatching defeat on an epic scale!
Rick Santorum is simply not electable.
Version: 11
President Obama 52%
Mitt Romney 45%
Other 3%
President Obama has a larger war chest, a consistent message, a reputation for affectively eliminating terrorism, and it's now becoming abundantly obvious that he's mending the economy and reducing unemployment.
President Obama will soundly be re-elected this November.
Version: 10
BAD NEWS FOR ROMNEY . . . .
If Mitt Romney's opponents do not leave the contest, Mitt Romney will not be able to acquire enough delegates in the primaries and caucuses to be declared the winner by default (even though he currently has 404 delegates) declare the pundits!
The GOP will remain divided . . . not good at all!
President Obama will win comfortably, I believe!
President Obama 52%
Mitt Romney 45% (assuming he is even the nominee)
Other 3%
Version: 9
Hostilities will remain in the Republican Party after Mitt Romney is nominated. President Obama will win the General Election very comfortably!
President Obama 52%
Mitt Romney 45%
Other 3%
Congratulations to Rick Santorum for over-performing and beating the polls on Super Tuesday!
Version: 8
President Obama 51%
Mitt Romney 46%
Other 3%
President Obama should win by a comfortable margin.
Version: 7
President Obama Versus Mitt Romney as of now!
Congratulations to Mitt Romney for winning the Arizona and Michigan Primaries last night! Haters need to be reminded that they can't always get their way, lol.
Love it!
~Diversity. Liberty. Equality.~
Version: 6
A President Obama versus Jon Huntsman Race.
Jon Huntsman would have accomplished what none of the current GOP candidates could have. A win!
Jon Huntsman was the most qualified, the most moderate, and the most connectable of the Republican candidates before he dropped out. The far-right is making a last-ditch effort to control the fate and direction of the party. My prediction: after 2012 the far-right fades into increasing vitriolic insignificance. (Necessity is the mother of invention!)
President Obama is right. Change is coming!
It's going to be different. It's going to be exciting!
Version: 5
If the Republicans get their act together and unite for the good of the party!
Obama/Biden 52%
Romney/Rubio 48%
The Republican ticket would still lose but it would be a dignified loss. LOL.
This is assuming Mitt Romney is able to capture the respect (and the support) of the far-right and that the selection of Marco Rubio as his runningmate is acceptable to a certain loyal segment of the Party. I'm not entirely convinced that it would be but . . . . Well, sometimes you have to learn that the world is larger than your own preferences.
Here's hoping to a Mitt Romney nomination . . . because the GOP badly needs diversity AND sensible moderation! (Really . . . the party wants to pass up Jon Huntsman? Ookkkaayyyy . . . !)
Version: 4
A Massive Win Scenario for President Obama . . .
If unemployment dives below 8% by June and hostility remains against Mitt Romney within swathes of the Republican Party even after he is nominated! A party that cant unite wont accomplish much of anything and wont have the passion to pose a serious challenge to the President on Election Day.
(Don't be so quick to count this possibility out! God--the real God, the one no one truly understands and which NO RELIGION has genuinely figured out but clearly does exist--has an excessively wicked sense of humor!)
Version: 3
A 400+ Electoral Vote Victory Scenario:
President Obama(D) 52%
Mitt Romney (R) 44%
Other 4%
If the economy continues to expand and unemployment continues to dive, and if the GOP experiences renewed internal hostility and disunity even after Mitt Romney is nominated (of course it will!), something like this will be the outcome. President Obama would be the first President since George H. W. Bush in 1988 to receive over 400+ electoral votes!
In other news, six out of 10 Independents now favor re-electing the President--great news for Barack Obama!
Version: 2
President Obama(D) 51%
Mitt Romney (R) 44%
Ron Paul (I) 2%
Other 3%
If the economy continues to expand and unemployment continues to dive, and if the GOP experiences renewed internal hostility and disunity even after Mitt Romney is nominated, something like this will be the outcome.
In other news, six out of 10 Independents now favor re-electing the President--great news for Barack Obama!
Version: 1
President Obama annihilates whichever Republican is nominated. The President picks up the states of Arizona and Missouri in this election but loses Indiana!
Low-voter turnout in the Republican Primaries and Caucuses this year just isn't a good sign for the eventual Republican Presidential nominee. The Party is either going to die or is going to have to win over new demographic groups!
Those that refuse to change just wont find themselves in power anymore.
~Diversity. Liberty. Equality.~
2012 President
2012 Rep Primary
