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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-12 Version:2

Prediction Map
rightwingnut MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
rightwingnut MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem253
 
Rep285
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem247
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
Tos56
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-8-1-106212253-106
Rep+8+1+106000222179+106
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Assuming current RCP averages for well polled states, 538 adjusted averages for sparsely polled states&CDs, the last <=5% among those polled as undecided break 2:1 for Romney, and all others polled as undecided - if >5% - split evenly.

Lean in confidence map means >=2% lead in poll average. Strong means double digit lead.

NPV result: R+3 (51-48)


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 51/56 36/56 87/112 77.7% pie 5 7 561T
P 2008 President 51/56 42/56 93/112 83.0% pie 33 0 139T
P 2008 Senate 28/33 13/33 41/66 62.1% pie 2 205 334T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 2 2 65T
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 33 1 49T
Aggregate Predictions 216/234 154/234 370/468 79.1% pie



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