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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-12 Version:2

Prediction Map
Carey Moore MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Carey Moore MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem275
 
Rep263
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem221
 
Rep196
 
Ind0
 
Tos121
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-6-1-84232275-84
Rep+6+1+84000222179+84
Ind0000000000


Analysis

This is an upgraded state of play map, taking into account the sharp turn to Romney after the first debate. As it is not yet clear what effect the VP debate has on the polling (if any) I have ignored it for now. Obama needs to bring his A game to the remaining debates, if he wishes to win. Ohio is next on the trend chopping block and, with it, the presidency.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 55/56 42/56 97/112 86.6% pie 3 3 227T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 1 3 20T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 9/11 20/22 90.9% pie 1 3 1T
Aggregate Predictions 98/100 74/100 172/200 86.0% pie


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