Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-12 Version:2

Prediction Map
Carey Moore Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
Carey Moore Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	275
Rep	263
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	221
Rep	196
Ind	0
Tos	121

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-6	-1	-84	23	2	275	-84
Rep	+6	+1	+84	0	0	0	22	2	179	+84
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

This is an upgraded state of play map, taking into account the sharp turn to Romney after the first debate. As it is not yet clear what effect the VP debate has on the polling (if any) I have ignored it for now. Obama needs to bring his A game to the remaining debates, if he wishes to win. Ohio is next on the trend chopping block and, with it, the presidency.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

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Version History

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User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	55/56	42/56	97/112	86.6%	3	3	227	T
2012 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	1	3	20	T
2012 Governor	11/11	9/11	20/22	90.9%	1	3	1	T
Aggregate Predictions	98/100	74/100	172/200	86.0%

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