The first debate saw a surprising strong performance by Mitt Romney, so he's now near to Obama in national polls

Willard need to win al the four toss-up states (Florida-Ohio-Virginia-Colorado) to unseat Obama and the president is still performing quite good in the decisive four swing states, especially in Ohio and it's pratically impossible for Romney to win the White House without Ohio

Romney campaign is a really mess. A race that looked competitive is starting lookin more and more a repeat of the 2008.

Even North Carolina pick-up is not sure anymore.

We knew from the beginning that Romney was a poor candidate but it was really hard to imagine he was so poor.

He got the perfect situation for a candidate.

-The economy is still a mess

-The Middle-East is falling under control of islamist

And he is trailing by 4 points the incumbent president...

Really one of the poorest candidate I've ever seen in my life.

I expect Romney to retain all states won by McCain in 2008. I expect Indiana to flip back into the republican column quiet easily, albeit is not necessarily a shoo-in for Romney.

I'm not sure about the status of North Carolina, Obama won it in 2008 by a 0.3% margin winning nationwide by seven points, so with margin predicted by current poll averages (2-3 pts in favor of incumbent president) I think it's unlikely NC will stay in the democratic column, but local polls suggests a dead heat with a tiny advantage for Romney and democrats will held their convention in Charlotte. Maybe it's in the middle between a pure toss-up and a republican leaning. However with current national polls I think it's an uphill battle for Obama in NC and Romney is favored to get back NC in the republican column.

So, while i put NC in the toss-up column, I think the four kingmakers this fall would be, as usual Florida and Ohio plus Virginia and Colorado. In 2008 VA and CO were the two states closer to the national margin with obama winning by 7.3 nationwide and winning by 6.3 in Virginia and by 8.9 in CO. With current national and local polls I expect Obama to win three of the four pure toss-ups, VA CO and OH while I expect Romney to take FL by a small margin.

Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire are not shoo-in for Obama, but he start as the favourite. Maybe I can put these three with NC, a midway between pure toss-up and leans democrats.

Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are not shoo-in for Obama too, but Romney has a real uphill battle in these three since they're real expensive states with a 20 years winning streak for democrats. If Romney can put these three in play he is probabily winning big nationwide (4-5 points)
Oregon, New Mexico and Minnesota are probabily not in play this time around.

Somebody speaks about a potential attack to Arizona by Obama, but I doubt about it. The polemics with governor Brewer on immigration have been a bad boomerang for democrats in Phoenix who saw all gains made in the last decade erased in the midterm.

Also Missouri, Georgia and Montana, that somebody considered as potential democratic targets four years ago I think are long shot for Obama. If he's able to make them in play, he is winning big nationwide.

Overall Obama is favourite to win a second term, but not a big one. In my opinion Romney is a weak candidate, but when an incumbent is running for reelection usually all eyes are on him not on the challenger. Since Obama's record is not very solid, especially on the economic side, even a weak opponent like Romney can be dangerous.

I expect these election to be a 2004 reversed parts. So I expect Obama winning but not easily like he did in 2008.

The race also is similar to the last french presidential election that saw Sarkozy, an incumbent with terrible approval ratings ousted by a candidate, Hollande, who usually people in France make fun of (I'm not joking. Nobody in France has ever take Hollande seriously, and nobody is taking him seriously even now. He won only because Sarkozy was deeply unpopular. If you told somebody in Paris one year ago that Hollande was going to be president he wuold probabily have laughed you in face. Also because Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Martine Aubry were considered the front-runners for the socialist nomination). What happened to Sarkozy, ousted by an extremely weak opponent, should sound as an alarm for Obama. No matter how weak is your opponent, if you're an impopular incumbent anyone, even Hollande, can oust you from office. Luckly for Obama his ratings are not as low as Sarkozy but even not spectacular and Romney is weak, but not as weak as mr Hollande.

So pay attention mr. Obama, you're ahead but if something got rotten with the economy you're gonna be in deep trouble.

08/22

Mitt Romney pick Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan as VP. After the announcement of the pick polls show Romney bounce in many swing states, especially in Wisconsin the home state of his VP. So I move Wisconsin in the toss-up column. The same I make with Iowa and New Hampshire. While I move Minnesota in the leaning democrat column