I was surprised to see today's polls showing Romney on par with Obama in Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado. All three are once again toss-ups.

Although Romney was doing the best out in Iowa, I still think it's advantage Obama in that state. Colorado, however, is looking more and more interesting. It seems to be trending towards Romney, and it's probably a better match for him than Iowa is.

Rove like's to use his 3-2-1 strategy, but I think he's got the order wrong. Indiana is a no-brainer that shouldn't be mentioned. I see it as 2-2-1. First Romney must lock up Florida and North Carolina. Then he's got to solidify Virginia and Ohio. Then he's got to win one more state. And I think that one state will be CO.

Nothing that changes the results. Just decided to designate Michigan as a toss-up (a questionable poll put Romney in the lead) and Oregon as lean-Obama.

MA is now out of Romney's reach, at least for now. So it's solid Dem. Gave Iowa to Obama as a result of recent polling.

I get that Obama is leading in Ohio, but for the sake of my prediction, I'm gonna have to give it to Romney. I still think he'll pull out a win there.

New polls show Romney doing better in Ohio than Pennsylvania. This is the first time Romney's OH numbers have really seemed to pull ahead of his numbers in PA.

So I've given PA to Obama and OH to Mr. Romney.

Virginia has been flipping back and forth lately. I'll give it to Obama.

Arizona is now a toss-up. We'll see if Mitt can make some in-roads in CO, AZ, and NV.

Updated to account for the new (but questionable) Virginia poll. The state may not be as solidly Obama as I thought it would be. Also flipped CO back to Barack--he's got a sizable advantage.

Last version had Obama winning Iowa, even though the most recent polls showed him at a disadvantage. I didn't wanna seem too partisan. But I'm gonna say it's trending Romney and put it into his column. We'll see.

Romney seems to be polling better in Pennsylvania than Ohio, so I actually think he probably has a better shot in PA. Either way, both states will be very close.

Mostly, this map is operating under the assumption that Romney picks Rubio to join the ticket. The Rubio pick would help Florida lean Republican and probably tilt Colorado in Romney's favour too.

Virginia has been going heavily for Obama, so I almost feel like it's a lost cause. Romney would be better to take his moderate appeal into the northeast. The etch-a-sketch crap could actually benefit Romney--being a moderate can only help him. The New England Republican stuff could play better in the northeast than people think. Depending on how the campaign shakes up, Romney could stand a fighting chance in states like Maine or Connecticut. Right now though, he's not appealing to that crowd. There's potential, but the entire region will go for Obama if he doesn't change things up.