Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:2

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	332
Rep	206
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	290
Rep	206
Ind	0
Tos	42

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-2	-1	-27	27	2	332	-27
Rep	+2	+1	+27	0	0	0	22	2	179	+27
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
98	51	38	5	4

Analysis

No 50 State analysis. Never was able to get to it. I will say this four states will decide the election: Virgina, Flordia, Ohio, and New Hampshire. The election can be called on Election night or by Nov. 11th. It depends on when New York and New Jersey is called and if Obama wins Flordia. Flordia and Virgina could go either way but I think Obama could win in both states.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Du_Chateau (I-OH) 2012-11-07 @ 07:01:13
Wow. If Flordia stays for the president I accurately predicted every state. I did not accurately predict the precentages though. New York and Massachusetts getting greater than 60%. Vermont and Hawaii got less then 70%. All in all a good election.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	51/56	28/56	79/112	70.5%	2	6	637	T	684
2020 Senate	29/35	19/35	48/70	68.6%	1	4	337	T	423
2018 Senate	30/35	15/35	45/70	64.3%	3	3	392	T	483
2018 Governor	31/36	15/36	46/72	63.9%	2	11	285	T	372
2016 President	44/56	22/56	66/112	58.9%	7	0	614	T	678
2016 Senate	28/34	16/34	44/68	64.7%	3	5	302	T	362
2014 Senate	28/36	17/36	45/72	62.5%	1	42	282	T	382
2014 Governor	26/36	13/36	39/72	54.2%	1	42	253	T	300
2012 President	56/56	42/56	98/112	87.5%	2	1	182	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	12/33	44/66	66.7%	2	1	211	T	343
2010 Senate	24/37	9/37	33/74	44.6%	1	165	441	T	456
2008 President	53/56	35/56	88/112	78.6%	4	6	276	T	1,505
2004 President	52/56	22/56	74/112	66.1%	19	6	1527	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	484/562	265/562	749/1124	66.6%

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