Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:13

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	303
Rep	235
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	271
Rep	191
Ind	0
Tos	76

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-1	-56	26	2	303	-56
Rep	+3	+1	+56	0	0	0	22	2	179	+56
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
101	50	41	5	5

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 7

It's looking more and more likely that Obama is going to run away with this...

Version: 5

I'm going to be bullish on Florida for Obama. Recent polling shows him doing well and his new immigration policy may be a boost.

I'm confident Obama will be victorious in Iowa but recent polling shows him in a tight race. Shifting that to Toss-Up.

FL: R => D
IA: Lean => Toss
VA: Lean => Toss

Version: 4

FL: D -> R
MO/AZ/IN: Toss -> Lean R
OH: D50 -> D40

Version: 2

Obama/Biden v Gingrich/Thune

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	50/56	39/56	89/112	79.5%	1	119	434	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	19/35	49/70	70.0%	1	14	309	T	423
2018 Senate	29/35	19/35	48/70	68.6%	1	350	306	T	483
2018 Governor	29/36	17/36	46/72	63.9%	1	352	285	T	372
2016 President	50/56	30/56	80/112	71.4%	2	1	246	T	678
2016 Senate	29/34	17/34	46/68	67.6%	3	1	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	4/12	13/24	54.2%	1	1	119	T	279
2014 Senate	33/36	23/36	56/72	77.8%	13	1	99	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	18/36	48/72	66.7%	13	0	73	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	130	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	46/56	101/112	90.2%	13	1	77	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	16	3	20	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	4	0	89	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	45/52	21/52	66/104	63.5%	19	-	21		231
Aggregate Predictions	433/490	283/490	716/980	73.1%