Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:11

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	259
Rep	279
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	223
Rep	235
Ind	0
Tos	80

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-7	-1	-100	22	2	259	-100
Rep	+7	+1	+100	0	0	0	22	2	179	+100
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
86	46	32	5	3

Analysis

It is a tossup. Many pollsters are using a 2008 model, which puts democrat turnout +8%. Turnout and enthusiasm is tied. It will be close and if Obama wins he will be the first President to win a second term and not flip any state he lost in 2008, to his side, he is only losing states.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	34/35	23/35	57/70	81.4%	1	42	124	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	23/36	58/72	80.6%	1	42	104	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	16	28	T	118
2020 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	4	7	260	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	20/35	50/70	71.4%	2	71	274	T	423
2020 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	1	340	147	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	1	6	104	T	192
2018 Senate	35/35	21/35	56/70	80.0%	4	4	42	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	4	6	226	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	2	40	T	149
2016 President	51/56	26/56	77/112	68.8%	4	0	369	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	2	3	164	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	6/12	16/24	66.7%	2	0	25	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	24/36	59/72	81.9%	6	3	42	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	19/36	49/72	68.1%	4	3	56	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	57	17	T	153
2012 President	51/56	35/56	86/112	76.8%	11	0	591	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	19/33	48/66	72.7%	8	0	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	5	0	51	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	45/52	22/52	67/104	64.4%	14	-	16	T	231
2011 Governor	3/4	1/4	4/8	50.0%	3	40	79	T	106
2010 Senate	32/37	23/37	55/74	74.3%	13	0	133	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	24/37	58/74	78.4%	12	0	74	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	4	8	1	T	103
2008 President	51/56	26/56	77/112	68.8%	7	8	625	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	13/33	45/66	68.2%	4	8	257	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	5/11	15/22	68.2%	1	193	183	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	693/759	425/759	1118/1518	73.6%