I think Obama will improve on his '08 numbers in the Carolinas, and possibly Virginia. I also believe he will improve in Florida and Georgia, though GA will remain in the GOP column. At the same time, I see the GOP gaining ground in the northeast with NH possibly flipping to the GOP and PA being in reach for them as well. That said, I believe the midwest will be strong for Obama, especially MN, WI, IA,and IL. Ohio and Michigan should both go Obama but aren't safe bets.

Out west I see Obama improving in AZ because of the immigration controversy with hispanics strongly favoring Obama. Also not having a nominee from the state will swing the state away from the GOP. The same goes for Alaska... but I think both states will remain GOP for the time being.

The polling coming out has been kind of wonky with Obama significantly ahead in Florida and even beating Romney and Gingrich in South Carolina. For whatever reason, the Carolinas seem to like Obama. Perhaps this is a long term trend finally manifesting itself? Perhaps not.