PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - rem1967 (O-ME) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:14

Prediction Map
rem1967 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
rem1967 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem294
 
Rep244
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem243
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos89
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-4-1-65252294-65
Rep+4+1+65000222179+65
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
83492752
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

My election eve prediction. 294-244 for Obama. VA and OH might break for Romney, but it's looking less and less likely. Obama will not, however, have coat tails to bring a Democratic majority to the House. I also don't think that we will see a split decision, with Obama winning the electoral college and Romney winning the popular vote. Early voting in several swing states is apparently going for Obama, and the aftermath of Sandy should keep voters of both parties away from the polls in roughly equal numbers, or at least not enough to really help Romney. OH is the new bellweather state with MO now fairly solidly red (or blue on this site). VA is turning purple, FL as well. Look for one or both of them to go to a re-count. I'm also less confident on CO than most of the others; it could go either way.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 50/56 29/56 79/112 70.5% pie 3 1 280T678
P 2012 President 54/56 29/56 83/112 74.1% pie 14 1 640T760
P 2012 Senate 27/33 9/33 36/66 54.5% pie 1 30 297T343
P 2008 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 59 1 41T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 12/33 43/66 65.2% pie 1 21 303T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 5/11 15/22 68.2% pie 1 21 183T264
Aggregate Predictions 226/245 128/245 354/490 72.2% pie


Alabama Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Arizona Arkansas California California California California Colorado Connecticut Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Maryland Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Virginia Washington Washington Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wisconsin Wyoming

Back to 2012 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved