Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:14
Prediction Map Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Prediction Score (max Score = 112)
Analysis
My election eve prediction. 294-244 for Obama. VA and OH might break for Romney, but it's looking less and less likely. Obama will not, however, have coat tails to bring a Democratic majority to the House. I also don't think that we will see a split decision, with Obama winning the electoral college and Romney winning the popular vote. Early voting in several swing states is apparently going for Obama, and the aftermath of Sandy should keep voters of both parties away from the polls in roughly equal numbers, or at least not enough to really help Romney. OH is the new bellweather state with MO now fairly solidly red (or blue on this site). VA is turning purple, FL as well. Look for one or both of them to go to a re-count. I'm also less confident on CO than most of the others; it could go either way.
Prediction History
Comments History
- show
Version History Member Comments User's Predictions
Links
|
Back to 2012 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home