Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-01 Version:84

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	237
Rep	301
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	186
Rep	257
Ind	0
Tos	95

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-10	-1	-122	19	2	237	-122
Rep	+10	+1	+122	0	0	0	22	2	179	+122
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
76	43	26	5	2

Analysis

Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan(R) 52%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden(D) 46%
Gary Johnson/Jim Gray(L) 1%
Other 1%

Demographics

Sex
Women 53%- Obama 51%-Romney 48%
Men 47%- Romney 58%-Obama 39%

Race
White 76%- Romney 62%-Obama 36%
Black 12%- Obama 92%-Romney 7%
Hispanic 9%- Obama 64%-Romney 33%
Asian 2%- Obama 56%-Romney 42%
Other 1%- Obama 65%-Romney 33%

Age
18-29 16%- Obama 59%-Romney 38%
30-44 28%- Romney 51%-Obama 47%
45-64 31%- Romney 53%-Obama 46%
65+ 25%- Romney 61-Obama 38%

Income
$30,000 or less 18%- Obama 68%-Romney 31%
$30,000-$49,999 18%- Obama 51%-Romney 47%
$50,000-$99,999 37%- Romney 54%-Obama 44%
$100,000 or more 27%- Romney 67%-Obama 32%

Party
Republican 35%- Romney 95%-Obama 4%
Democrat 34%- Obama 94%-Romney 5%
Independent 31%- Romney 56%-Obama 40%

Ideology
Conservative 39%- Romney 93%-Obama 4%
Moderate 37%- Obama 56%-Romney 43%
Liberal 24%- Obama 98%-Romney 2%

Union Household
No 78%- Romney 55%-Obama 44%
Yes 22%- Obama 56%-Romney 43%

Homosexual
No 96%- Romney 54%-Obama 44%
Yes 4%- Obama 91%-Romney 8%

Tea Party
Oppose 60%- Obama 76%-Romney 22%
Support 38%- Romney 97%-Obama 1%

Occupy
Oppose 68%- Romney 76%-Obama 22%
Support 30%- Obama 96%-Romney 2%

Obama Job Approval
Disapprove 53%- Romney 86%-Obama 12%
Approve 46%- Obama 85%-Romney 14%

Religion
Protestant 32%- Romney 50%-Obama 47%
Catholic 27%- Romney 50%-Obama 48%
Evangelical 23%- Romney 83%-Obama 16%
Atheist 9%- Obama 89%-Romney 9%
Jewish 4%- Obama 58%-Romney 41%
Other 3%- Obama 78%-Romney 19%
Mormon 2%- Romney 86%-Obama 13%

Size of Place
Big cities 10%- Obama 68%-Romney 30%
Small cities 19%- Obama 53%-Romney 46%
Suburbs 49%- Romney 54%-Obama 44%
Small towns 7%- Romney 65%-Obama 34%
Rural areas 14%- Romney 67%-Obama 32%

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	29/56	79/112	70.5%	9	393	280	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	17/34	48/68	70.6%	6	343	164	T	362
2016 Governor	8/12	7/12	15/24	62.5%	3	343	47	T	279
2015 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	2	143	72	T	112
2014 Senate	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	21	1	42	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	18	1	39	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	136	17	T	153
2012 President	48/56	28/56	76/112	67.9%	84	5	702	T	760
2012 Senate	25/33	13/33	38/66	57.6%	27	3	283	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	6/11	15/22	68.2%	3	43	131	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	40/52	20/52	60/104	57.7%	57	-	41	T	231
2011 Governor	3/4	2/4	5/8	62.5%	3	14	37	T	106
2010 Senate	31/37	17/37	48/74	64.9%	48	1	265	T	456
2010 Governor	31/37	18/37	49/74	66.2%	41	2	179	T	312
2008 President	48/56	21/56	69/112	61.6%	4	12	1031	T	1,505
Aggregate Predictions	393/465	223/465	616/930	66.2%