PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - dwkulsar (D-FL) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2011-11-13 Version:1

Prediction Map
dwkulsar MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
dwkulsar MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem318
 
Rep220
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem246
 
Rep188
 
Ind0
 
Tos104
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-2-1-41272318-41
Rep+2+1+41000222179+41
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
95493853
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Obama will do worse as a national percentage than 2008. I expect his reelection to resemble 2004. The swing states can tip the scales. I feel that Obama will do well in the Midwest and carry those swing states due to organized labor and party machinery. However with states like Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Ohio having Congressional races run under egregiously Republican favored lines the down-ballot may be weak and see vital Democrats staying home.
Some states that have large profile down-ballot races such as Florida, Missouri, Virginia, Montana and Ohio can be a boost or a blunder for the Democratic Ticket. Where I feel that while Obama may not be liked much in these states it is very possible that he will lose these states while the Senate nominee carried the state.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2012 President 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie 1 359 314T760
Aggregate Predictions 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie



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