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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-26 Version:1

Prediction Map
Mechaman MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Mechaman MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem303
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem262
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos85
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-3-1-56262303-56
Rep+3+1+56000222179+56
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
98503954
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

With the GOP riling up the proles this election it looks like Obama is so toast. His Socialist Marxist polices won't get him very far as he will lose the most humiliating defeat of an incumbent since Jimmy Carter.

Just kidding.

Most likely this will be at most a "meh" election. And one that will break some preconceived notions people have about the nature of elections.
One thing I am certain of, and I don't say this as a partisan hack (I'm a registered Independent with a PM score that is biased toward neither the Democrats or Republicans). . . . . Obama will be re-elected come November 6th. However, he will also be the first incumbent since Wilson to see his EV share drop. I've reached this conclusion because:

1) There is very little way he could've lived up to the hype of 2008 while running against a party that had an almost universally despised President in office.
2) The backlash in 2010 suggests that there is a significant portion of the population that are just damned to hate him no matter what. And,
3) overall things have improved SOMEWHAT. This isn't the most spectacular recovery in optimism that Americans have ever had, but it's still happening.

The last point I emphasize more to back up the map I've come up with with 303-235 Obama-Romney. As it is, I see a lot of the swing states being on the mend until the last minute. This tends to distort poll readings, which might show a stronger than expected showing for one candidate over another or a tie when one doesn't exist. Rule of thumb here is that most states that voted 52% or less for Obama in 2008 are the states to watch. The further Southeast the state is, the more likely it is to go GOP this year (due to the lack of momentum). Some of these states are assumed lean GOP, others (with trending D demographics) are assumed tossup. The GOP will have a net gain of EV this election, simply due to the die down of pro-Obama momentum over '08. However, I would expect the President to win somewhere between 49.5-50.8% of the popular vote.

So yes, sorry to post a map that probably says what most people are saying anyway. But, at the moment I have little belief in a massive swing either way.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 47/56 24/56 71/112 63.4% pie 2 12 670T684
P 2018 Senate 29/35 19/35 48/70 68.6% pie 1 93 306T483
P 2014 Senate 31/36 13/36 44/72 61.1% pie 2 52 288T382
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 1 11 182T760
P 2010 Senate 27/37 9/37 36/74 48.6% pie 2 51 422T456
P 2010 Governor 20/37 10/37 30/74 40.5% pie 2 263 292T312
Aggregate Predictions 209/257 118/257 327/514 63.6% pie



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