PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - stegosaurus (R-TX) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-01 Version:4

Prediction Map
stegosaurus MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
stegosaurus MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem284
 
Rep254
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem284
 
Rep254
 
Ind0
 
Tos0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-6-1-75232284-75
Rep+6+1+75000222179+75
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
95473954
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

FINAL PREDICTION:

Romney wins the popular vote, but loses the electoral college. Virginia isn't called for sometime, possibly days; it's inconsequential however because Obama will already be over 270. Conservative groups will call for a recount in Wisconsin (the margin here will be 50-100 thousand votes) as well to give Romney a path to 270 in case he comes out ahead in the Virginia mess - they wont get it. This is a pure guess, but I'd say Obama pulls it out in Virginia; mostly because of Virgil Goode.

Suprise of the Night: Romney comfortably wins NH. I predict Romney will win Independents, who will make up over 40% of NH's electorate, by a 9-10 pt margipn.

Suprise of the Night #2: Obama comfortably wins Ohio, the surprise is how little a part of the post-election narrative this is.

TURNOUT PREDICTION
DEMOCRATIC - 38%
REPUBLICAN - 34%
INDEPENDENT - 28%

POPULAR VOTE
ROMNEY/RYAN - 50%
OBAMA/BIDEN - 49%
OTHER - 1%

COLORADO
ROMNEY/RYAN - 52%
OBAMA/BIDEN - 47%
OTHER - 1%

NEVADA
ROMNEY/RYAN - 48%
OBAMA/BIDEN - 51%
OTHER - 1%

IOWA
ROMNEY/RYAN - 52%
OBAMA/BIDEN - 47%
OTHER - 1%

WISCONSIN
ROMNEY/RYAN - 49%
OBAMA/BIDEN - 50%
OTHER - 1%

OHIO
ROMNEY/RYAN - 49%
OBAMA/BIDEN - 50%

PENNSYLVANIA
ROMNEY/RYAN - 48%
OBAMA/BIDEN - 51%
OTHER - 1%

MICHIGAN
ROMNEY/RYAN - 46%
OBAMA/BIDEN - 52%
OTHER - 2%

NEW HAMPSHIRE
ROMNEY/RYAN - 52%
OBAMA/BIDEN - 47%
OTHER - 1%

VIRGINIA
ROMNEY/RYAN - 49%
OBAMA/BIDEN - 49%*
OTHER - 2%

FLORIDA
ROMNEY/RYAN - 51%
OBAMA/BIDEN - 48%
OTHER - 1%

NORTH CAROLINA
ROMNEY/RYAN - 52%
OBAMA/BIDEN - 47%
OTHER - 1%





Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 4 5 314T760
P 2012 Senate 27/33 15/33 42/66 63.6% pie 3 83 237T343
Aggregate Predictions 79/89 58/89 137/178 77.0% pie



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