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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-31 Version:2

Prediction Map
Simfan34 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Simfan34 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem271
 
Rep267
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem241
 
Rep267
 
Ind0
 
Tos30
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-7-1-88222271-88
Rep+7+1+88000222179+88
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
88463453
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

I think PA will be quite the shocker come Tuesday, especially after Sandy. I've trusted PPP for quite some time, but I think they're beginning to lose it. I would not be surprised to see this map happening (the current map w/PA to Romney) But I would equally expect this one (the prediction). This is honestly what I'm expecting come Tuesday, but I maintain the one above is very much possible. In either case, Romney wins the PV 51.3%-47.4%, +/- .5%. PA will be closer than OH.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 26/36 11/36 37/72 51.4% pie 1 363 359T
P 2014 Governor 27/36 13/36 40/72 55.6% pie 1 363 241T
P 2012 President 51/56 37/56 88/112 78.6% pie 2 6 534T
P 2012 Senate 29/33 10/33 39/66 59.1% pie 1 1 268T
P 2012 Governor 9/11 3/11 12/22 54.5% pie 1 1 196T
P 2012 Rep Primary 39/52 13/52 52/104 50.0% pie 3 - 68
Aggregate Predictions 181/224 87/224 268/448 59.8% pie



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