Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:34

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	303
Rep	235
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	281
Rep	206
Ind	0
Tos	51

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-1	-56	26	2	303	-56
Rep	+3	+1	+56	0	0	0	22	2	179	+56
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
102	50	43	5	4

Analysis

National popular vote: Obama/Biden 50.2%, Romney/Ryan 48.5%
=> O +1.7

State percentages:
UT: R +45
WY: R +38
OK: R +35
ID: R +34
AL: R +25
AR: R +24
LA: R +21
KS: R +21
NE: R +21
AK: R +21
WV: R +20
KY: R +20
TN: R +19
MS: R +17
TX: R +16
ND: R +14
SD: R +12
SC: R +12
GA: R + 9
MT: R + 9
IN: R + 9
MO: R + 9
AZ: R + 5
NC: R + 2,5
FL: R + 0,3
---
CO: O + 1
VA: O + 1
IA: O + 2
NH: O + 2
OH: O + 2
WI: O + 4
NV: O + 5
PA: O + 5
MI: O + 6
MN: O + 8
NM: O + 9
OR: O + 9
WA: O + 11
ME: O + 12
CT: O + 13
NJ: O + 13
CA: O + 17
MA: O + 18
IL: O + 19
DE: O + 19
MD: O + 22
NY: O + 23
RI: O + 24
VT: O + 33
HI: O + 39
DC: O + 83

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: palandio (I-DEU) 2012-11-05 @ 10:17:55
So I'm calling this election for Obama... In polls we trust.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2020 President	54/56	46/56	100/112	89.3%	2	10	35	T	684
2016 President	52/56	34/56	86/112	76.8%	15	1	48	T	678
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	34	1	47	T	760
Aggregate Predictions	161/168	127/168	288/336	85.7%

User Info

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