Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-28 Version:4

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	227
Rep	311
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	217
Rep	219
Ind	0
Tos	102

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-10	-1	-132	19	2	227	-132
Rep	+10	+1	+132	0	0	0	22	2	179	+132
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
81	43	31	5	2

Analysis

I'm assuming the best (or close to it) for my side here, but I think there's a good chance the campaign will go this way. It my be too idealistic of a hope, but I'd love to see Romney propose serious entitlement reform. I think the need is so obvious that the other side won't be able to successfully demagogue it.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: CR (--MO) 2012-04-28 @ 17:08:08
Well it is a little optimistic, I agree, but I share your hope that we could have an outcome like this. I think this would be a best case scenario and it could come to pass if everything went just so. At this point, the very start of the general election, we really have no idea how the campaign is going to unfold so I wouldn't rule this as an impossibility. In terms of our contest I believe our April maps now hold biggest difference with five states diverging - Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Last Edit: 2012-04-28 @ 17:09:21

By: Samdog67 (R-MS) 2012-04-28 @ 17:08:37
Well, CR, if I didn't miss anything, the picker of at least three of CO, NV, IA, PA and OH wins our April contest. To summarize so far, in Feb I've got R winning VA; in March, I've got R winning VA, NH and IA; and in April, I've got R winning CO, NV, IA, PA and OH. So far, I'm always the more optimistic. The polls don't look so good right now, but with '08 being close considering the circumstances and our big win in '10, I think we could see lots of movement our way. I agree that NH is important, and I do like the possibility that it could be decisive. There are lots more ways that one of the biggies could be the state that puts the winner over, just based on the math.

By: CR (--MO) 2012-04-28 @ 17:16:13
Well its true, I've been much more dejected and pessimistic this year as oppose to years past. However, I do see signs that could make me more optimistic in the coming months. Again we'll just have to see how the campaign unfolds. But I will say this (as I have in the past) - there is absolutely nothing wrong with being optimistic. Beats being down all the time if anyone wants my two cents on the matter. So we'll see. There's a chance. On the plus I'm enjoy our contest very much and I'm looking forward to how the electoral math could change over the next 6 months.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-04-30 @ 16:02:45
I think the true believers in both parties are down this year which is why i feel that turnout will be down too. It will hurt Obama more than ROmeny though as I see ROmeny's downturn in rural parts of the states where he is still seen as a flippflipper...some places like Ohio it will hurt him BUT the fall off in the south will not. For Obama I think 2 states are gone in my mind NC and Indiana that plus reapportionment have ROmney closing in on 200 no sweat. SO no matter what I feel it looks like a close election like Wilson/Hughes of 1916...although I am leaning towards Obama I have no real passion for the outcome other than being an election junkie..

By: Samdog67 (R-MS) 2012-04-30 @ 18:24:23
I don't know about the 1916 race. I could have come up with Wilson as a candidate, but not Hughes. Any time there was a convention, my dad would say, "Alabama casts 24 votes for Oscar W. Underwood!" I disliked Romney in '08. "How can he win in Massachusetts and then run to the right of everybody?" I complained. I was sure I'd feel like that this time, but for the first time ever, the field had no appeal to me. So I voted for Romney in the primary. Well, I was trying to make the point that I was a bit like you from the other side. Sorta got lost in the weeds there. Anyway, I was wondering what Romney could do to win your vote. Last Edit: 2012-04-30 @ 18:30:56

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-04-30 @ 21:54:19
Three things 1. pledge a balanced budget within 2 years 2. pick Ayotte as VP or some other choice that might woo a transplanted New Englander like me who is a midwesterner now. Maybe Get John THune or Mitch Daniels... 3. raise taxes to lower the debt after budget balanced...

By: Samdog67 (R-MS) 2012-05-01 @ 11:02:25
I had criteria for Obama. He had to get us out of the recession by running deficits like Reagan's or less, as a % of GDP, and obtaining growth rates like Reagan's or better. Then I would have swallowed hard and admitted that big government hurts the economy less than I thought. So it looks like you'll vote D and I'll vote R.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-05-01 @ 17:15:59
yes but I will hold my nose to say the least..I still want a balanced budget and am furious at DC which will rely on squeastering to save them while crying crocodile tears...both sides - ugh!

By: Lamrock (D-WA) 2012-05-02 @ 22:25:00
Seems like a fair GOP best-case. I'm fiscally moderate and socially tolerant (thank you for that term Gary Johnson) and would have voted D in the last three elections if eligible, but I'm leaning towards voting independent - partially because WA only goes R in a blowout but also because Barack has been turrible in my eyes, and Romney doesn't seem any better or much worse. Interesting that the aggregate had ND only as Lean R.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-05-03 @ 22:52:43
ND has a booming economy thanks to energy, one of my former students is helping develop potash mining in western ND. 8,000 people moved into ND in one year..that says something... independent by voting libertarian for Gary Johnson-I like the term socially tolerant too...maybe he will get more votes than was thought...watch Montana where he is expected to make the state very close for Obama/ROmney...

By: Samdog67 (R-MS) 2012-05-04 @ 05:55:10
What did you teach? I taught math and stat. About the 2016 race, I hope the economy isn't so bad that Romney becomes another Franklin Pierce.

By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-05-04 @ 11:44:16
If we want this to happen there should be three things, Mitt Romney doing well in the debates, an economy downfall before the election, and an enthusiastic Romney campaign and more excited Conservatives.

By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-05-04 @ 15:25:53
Hmmm... somehow I don't see Mitt's supporters cheering for an "economic downfall" winning him any friends at all. Just a hunch. I'd think it unlikely in the extreme you could see flips in PA and CO and NV and IA and NH and OH and VA and FL all happening for Mitt. But he's such an excellent campaigner - virtually gaffe-free - that he could easily flip all 8 battlegrounds no problem. Just do the same thing he did in the primaries and out-spend his opponent 10-to-1. That's easy enough. -Jeff

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-05-04 @ 16:56:29
I taught East Asian studies like Japanese and Chinese history. Thanks for asking...reason why I am in Japan consulting. I think that ROmney ahs a chance in that the economy is not great though slightly i improving. I see ROmney doing well enough to flip some of the states above, like Iowa, Virginia (though Obama looks pretty good now) and FLorida (where economy is among the worst), NC and Indiana...that is plus 74 electoral votes and puts him in lower mid 200's electoral votes...after that he has to run a near flawless campaign .... money will be flowing to the tune of 2 billion dollars in my mind and from both sides by their friends...

By: Samdog67 (R-MS) 2012-05-04 @ 18:03:12
Here's why I think the '12 election could go like my map says. It's a referendum election. In '80, the Republicans won lots of states they lost in '76. It would be easy to look up, but I'll guess seventeen. I don't think it mattered that Reagan was the R. I don't think it would have mattered if Carter had outspent him 2 to 1. People were tired of Carter, and that was that. The same thing happened to GHW Bush in '92. The 2010 election showed that voters can turn on Obama, and that reports of the Republican party's demise were exaggerated. I don't know what the near future holds. The voters aren't yet tired enough of Obama, but they may be after a while. So I think my prediction is not just possible but also reasonable. Jeff, I think you have a reasonable map under the Obama-wins scenario. We'll see soon enough. Last Edit: 2012-05-04 @ 19:21:24

By: Samdog67 (R-MS) 2012-05-04 @ 18:08:07
Hey, dnul, did I get a smile with my Pierce reference? I meant it to be a humorous way of assuming Romney wins and then loses in '16 to Jeb. Of course I know your map assumes an Obama win. Anyway, sometimes my jokes don't work so well.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-05-05 @ 02:23:31
No I thought it was both funny and very historical-maybe hysterically historical...no if you can hum a tune from that time you good to the head of the class like- rumpsy dumpsy rumpsy dumpsy colonel johnson killed tuecemseh-fear not as I have been writing alot lately and will now back off a bit after two more entries until alter next week as I will be traveling...

By: Samdog67 (R-MS) 2012-05-06 @ 19:02:39
I don't get to go to the head of the class. But that's a good one. I do know "Albania, Albania, you border on the Adriatic. Your land is mostly moun-tain-ous, and your chief export is chrome! You're a communist republic! You're a red regime!" That was on one of Coach's last Cheers episodes. It's sung to the tune of "When the Saints Go Marching In." I just took the political matrix test. I'm a capitalist/center libertarian. Close to our pal AU H20. Last Edit: 2012-05-07 @ 10:44:28

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-05-06 @ 21:49:42
That is pretty good. I come to like some of Barry's positions as I get older and hope to get een older. One thing he was passionate but civil. I miss those days in some respects. Thanks for making me laugh!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	28/56	79/112	70.5%	2	1	280	T	678
2016 Senate	28/34	16/34	44/68	64.7%	1	25	302	T	362
2012 President	48/56	33/56	81/112	72.3%	4	192	670	T	760
2012 Senate	26/33	10/33	36/66	54.5%	5	224	297	T	343
Aggregate Predictions	153/179	87/179	240/358	67.0%

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