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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-02 Version:1

Prediction Map
EmersonAdams Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
EmersonAdams Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem347
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem285
 
Rep165
 
Ind0
 
Tos88
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-1-1-12282347-12
Rep+1+1+12000222179+12
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
100504154
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

If Romney totally tanks in the debates or on the campaign trail, which I think is a possibility given some of the crazy things coming out of his mouth in the last few months, Obama could make major inroads in the deep south and Appalachia. If Obama has a decent cash advantage, he may be able to put Arizona, Georgia, Tennessee, and maybe even South Carolina into play. In each of these states, Obama has polled within single digits of (and occasionally surpassing) Romney. This is the first election for years in which a Southerner is not heading either party ticket, and Romney's dismal performance in the south in the primaries could carry over to the general election. Obama, in 2008, did better in the south than any dem since Clinton.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 55/56 45/56 100/112 89.3% pie 1 218 115T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 16/33 47/66 71.2% pie 2 39 164T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 1 211 5T
Aggregate Predictions 97/100 69/100 166/200 83.0% pie



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