PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - valencia.gatell (I-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-14 Version:3

Prediction Map
valencia.gatell MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
valencia.gatell MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem236
 
Rep302
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem200
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos132
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-10-2-123191236-123
Rep+10+2+123000222179+123
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
84433443
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Almost two weeks after the first presidential debate, there is enough evidence to suggest that the race is stabilizing in Romney's favor. Furthermore, more and more states are moving in Romney's direction. This trend has not stopped. I don't see it changing unless Romney falls on his face in the next two debates, which is highly unlikely. At best, Obama would tie Romney in the remaining debates. This won't be enough to cause the tide to recede in Obama's favor.

I think we might be witnessing a similar repeat of the surge that Reagan saw after his debate with Carter. We shall see what happens...but so far, Romney's momentum is showing no signs of stopping.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 55/56 41/56 96/112 85.7% pie 2 6 130T684
P 2012 President 47/56 37/56 84/112 75.0% pie 3 23 630T760
Aggregate Predictions 102/112 78/112 180/224 80.4% pie


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