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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:48

Prediction Map
Ernest MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Ernest MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem303
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem243
 
Rep190
 
Ind0
 
Tos105
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-3-1-56262303-56
Rep+3+1+56000222179+56
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
95503654
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

I'm moving Iowa from 50% D to 40%D. The polling is close enough to indicate it's a leading candidate for a State won by a plurality instead of a majority.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Ernest (I-SC) 2012-11-13 @ 11:23:09 prediction Map
Missing the call on only Florida wasn't too bad, but I need to work on my percentages. Still, I did end up doing slightly better than the median prediction overall.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 19 17T
P 2012 President 55/56 40/56 95/112 84.8% pie 48 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 26/33 58/66 87.9% pie 22 0 2T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 2 1 89T
P 2012 Rep Primary 36/52 13/52 49/104 47.1% pie 18 - 75T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 28/37 62/74 83.8% pie 2 3 21T
P 2010 Governor 33/37 29/37 62/74 83.8% pie 1 3 17T
P 2009 Governor 1/2 0/2 1/4 25.0% pie 1 137 92T
P 2008 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 79 1 100T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 28/33 61/66 92.4% pie 17 2 2
P 2006 Governor 35/36 29/36 64/72 88.9% pie 16 2 6T
P 2004 President 53/56 41/56 94/112 83.9% pie 47 1 66T
Aggregate Predictions 377/411 283/411 660/822 80.3% pie



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