PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - whoblitzell (I-JPN) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:6

Prediction Map
whoblitzell MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
whoblitzell MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem303
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem257
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos75
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-3-1-56262303-56
Rep+3+1+56000222179+56
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
99504054
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

What appeared to be a resurgence by Mitt Romney seems to have been muted by Sandy. Gallup now has the two tied, and state polling data suggests Obama will slightly edge out Romney in pivotal states such as Ohio and Virginia.

Right now I'm going to say the media seems to be creating the false perception of a "close race" to keep people watching and are basically struggling to remain relevant against a population turning increasingly to the Internet and mobile devices for their news. I believe in 4 years, that the campaigns will be fought with streaming Internet advertisements and unsolicited text messages rather than with cable TV ads. It's all about to change.

Final popular vote:

Obama/Biden: 50.3%
Romney/Ryan: 48.6%
Independents: 1.1%

I predict voter turnout will be somewhere around 53% nationally with more people having voted total in 2008, and that the decisive factor for why Obama wins will be a stronger than expected Democratic turnout among key demographic groups such as Hispanics and Blacks. I consistently see Hispanics being undersampled in most national polls, and Gallup seems to have corrected this now.

Republicans will react to this election with genuine shock, as Fox News and Romney's campaign are telling them that Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and other states are "in play" despite the fact that there is absolutely no mathematical evidence to concur with this.

Naturally this entire prediction could be worthless if the state polls are somehow all biased, but failing that I strongly believe that Mitt Romney has almost no credible path to 270 electoral votes.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 50/56 28/56 78/112 69.6% pie 3 0 325T678
P 2012 President 55/56 44/56 99/112 88.4% pie 6 1 146T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 20/33 52/66 78.8% pie 1 1 74T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 8/52 2/52 10/104 9.6% pie 4 - 211T231
P 2010 Senate 0/37 0/37 0/74 0.0% pie 9 -1 200456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 24/37 59/74 79.7% pie 3 1 59T312
P 2008 President 55/56 49/56 104/112 92.9% pie 87 0 11,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 23/33 56/66 84.8% pie 11 1 14T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 5 1 27T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 47/52 41/52 88/104 84.6% pie 77 - 1271
P 2008 Rep Primary 42/49 31/49 73/98 74.5% pie 27 - 1235
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 9 1 65T465
P 2004 President 50/56 29/56 79/112 70.5% pie 33 1 1285T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 451/561 320/561 771/1122 68.7% pie


Alabama Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Arizona Arkansas California California California California Colorado Connecticut Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Maryland Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Virginia Washington Washington Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wisconsin Wyoming

Back to 2012 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved